R E S U M OEste estudo propôs analisar o desempenho agronômico das 1 a e 2 a safras do milho cultivado no Centro-Oeste do Brasil, em diferentes cenários climáticos. Dados climáticos de cinco municípios localizados nas principais regiões produtoras de milho do Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul e de Goiás, foram utilizados no software Aquacrop 4.0 para determinar a duração do ciclo, produtividade, eficiência do uso da água, requerimento de irrigação líquida e o índice de colheita ajustado em diferentes cenários climáticos, baseados nos valores do percentil 25 e 75% da distribuição do 'ensemble' entre os modelos utilizados para gerar o cenário RCP 4.5 em curto prazo (2016-2035) e médio prazo (2046-2065) do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática. No contexto geral a primeira safra do milho terá redução na duração do ciclo mas não sofrerá com estresse hídrico no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. A produtividade e o requerimento de irrigação líquida do milho safrinha tendem a diminuir quanto maior for a redução na duração do ciclo da cultura. Agronomic performance of maize in different climatic scenarios in the Central West of Brazil A B S T R A C TThis study aimed to analyse the agronomic performance of 1 st and 2 nd season of maize grown in the Central West part of Brazil in different climatic scenarios. Climatic data from five cities located in major maize producing regions of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás were used in Aquacrop 4.0 software to determine the duration of the cycle, yield, water use efficiency, net irrigation requirement and harvest index adjusted for different climatic scenarios, based on the percentile of 25 and 75% of the distribution of 'ensemble' between the models used to generate the scenario RCP 4.5 in the near term (2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025)(2026)(2027)(2028)(2029)(2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035) and medium term (2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a general context, the first season of maize will have reduction in duration of the cycle and will not suffer from water stress in the Central West of Brazil. The yield and net irrigation requirement of maize in second season should decrease, the greater the reduction in the duration of the crop cycle. Palavras-chave:Aquacrop produtividade irrigação índice de colheita fenologia Key words: Aquacrop yield irrigation harvest index phenology
On Rio Grande do Sul the seasons of the year are well defined being felt, in its peculiar characteristics, in the winter, in the spring, in the summer and in the autumn. The pluviometric regime is quite regular and the precipitations are well distributed during all the year on the State. The Multivariate Enso Index (MEI) lacks of a study about its relations with the precipitation. It is a numeric index that integrates the action of different factors that characterize the phenomenon and that oscilate between positive values for the warm phase, the El Niño, and negative values for the cold phase, the La Niña. It considers, in its composition, the following variables: sea level pressure, zonal and meridional wind components at the surface, the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the air temperature at the surface and a cloudiness indicator. This work had the objective to study the relations between the MEI and the SST of the Niño regions with the precipitations on Rio Grande do Sul State. For this, it were utilized total monthly data of precipitation from 40 meteorological stations of Rio Grande do Sul, bimonthly data of MEI and SST of the Niño regions for the period 1950 to 2002. The correlation coefficients between the precipitation of the Rio Grande Do Sul with the MEI and the regions of the Niños showed low values due to the fact of if using only the months of the beginning and end of the event. The MEI, although to be a more complex index of the methodologic point of view, it does not improve the coefficients of correlation with the precipitation of the State of the Rio Grande do Sul, and it always presents lesser or equal values to obtained when using the TSM of the regions of the Niños in the out/nov and nov/dez coupled of months. The MEI and the Niños regions 3 and 3.4 present the highest correlation coefficient with the Rio Grande do Sul State precipitation for the bimonths oct/nov and nov/dec.
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