Abstract. The paper presents part of a study on the probabilistic seismic performance assessment of an existing industrial facility featuring a steel structure as the main building. The building is located in central Italy
Prioritization of seismic risk mitigation at a large scale requires rough-input methodologies able to provide an expedited, yet conventional, assessment of the seismic risk corresponding to the portfolio of interest. In fact, an evaluation of seismic vulnerability at regional level by means of mechanics-based methods is generally only feasible for a fraction of the portfolio, selected according to prioritization criteria, due to the sheer volume of information and computational effort required. Therefore, conventional assessment of seismic risk via simple indices has been proposed in literature and in some guidelines, mainly based on the comparison of code requirements at the time of design and current seismic demand. These indices represent an attempt to define a relative seismic risk measure for a rapid ranking to identify the part of the portfolio that deserves further investigation. Although these risk metrics are based on strong assumptions, they have the advantage of only requiring easy-to-retrieve data, such as design year and location as the bare minimum, making them suitable for applications within the risk analysis industry. Moreover, they can take both hazard and vulnerability into account, albeit conventionally, and can be manipulated in order to account for exposure in terms of individual or societal risks. In the present study, the main assumptions, limitations, and possible evolutions of existing prioritization approaches to nominal risk are reviewed, with specific reference to the Italian case. Furthermore, this article presents the software NODE (available to interested readers), which enables the computation of location-specific code-based seismic performance demands, according to the Italian code and the evolution of seismic classification since 1909. Finally, this study intends to contribute to the ongoing debate on strategies for large-scale seismic assessment for building stock management purposes.
This paper presents the quantitative seismic loss assessment of an industrial plant and compares it to the real losses observed during the Emilia 2012 earthquakes. The analysis was performed by means of the FRAME software, which allows a rapid computation of seismic risk on probabilistic basis. The comparison between the estimated losses and the adjusted ones, although understandably questionable for the consistency of a probabilistic estimate of the loss observed in a single event, is believed to represent an opportunity for a critical analysis of strengths and limits of application of predictive estimations of earthquake-induced losses in the industrial field. Although some critical aspects related to the selection and the application of fragility and consequence functions exist, results show that that loss estimates can be well correlated to the adjusted ones, thus encouraging the adoption of probabilistic approaches as a support for informed decision making.
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