Abstract. Real-time assessment of debris-flow hazard is fundamental for developing warning systems that can mitigate risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is to compare measured and forecasted rainfalls to critical rainfall threshold (CRT) curves. Empirical derivation of the CRT from the analysis of past events' rainfall characteristics is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For debris flows and mud flows triggered by shallow landslides or debris avalanches, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology presented. In this work the CRT curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations, based on the infinite-slope stability model in which slope instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled through a reduced form of the Richards equation. The range of rainfall durations for which the method can be correctly employed is investigated and an equation is derived for the lower limit of the range. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive CRT curves. The methodology is implemented and tested in a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy). The comparison among the obtained CRT curves and the observed rainfall amounts, in a playback period, gives a good agreement. Simulations are performed with different degree of detail in the soil parameters characterization. The comparison shows that the lack of knowledge about the spatial variability of the parameters may greatly affect the results. This problem is partially mitigated by the use of a Monte Carlo approach.

In this paper, we propose a methodology devoted to exploit the outstanding characteristics of COSMO-SkyMed for monitoring water bodies in semiarid countries at a scale never experienced before. The proposed approach, based on appropriate registration, calibration, and processing of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, allows outperforming the previously available methods for monitoring small reservoirs, mainly carried out with optical data, and severely limited by the presence of cloud coverage, which is a frequent condition in wet season. A tool has been developed for computing the water volumes retained in small reservoirs based on SAR-derived digital elevation model. These data have been used to derive a relationship between storage volumes and surface areas that can be used when bathymetric information is unavailable. Due to the lack of direct measures of river's discharge, the time evolution of water volumes retained at reservoirs has been used to validate a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model that can provide useful recommendation for the management of small reservoirs. Operational scenarios concerning the improvement in the efficiency of reservoirs management and the estimation of their impact on downstream area point out the applicative outcomes of the proposed method

The hydrological and hydraulic processes of the flash flood that affected Atrani\ud village (Amalfi Coast of Southern Italy) on 9 September 2010 are analysed using\ud post-flood surveys and numerical modelling. Observations in this case are\ud particularly challenging because of the small spatial and temporal scales of the\ud event, relative to the sampling characteristics of conventional rain and discharge\ud measurement networks. Given these aspects, some of the relevant characteristics\ud of the event were deduced by analysing field data that were collected immediately\ud after the event.A width function instantaneous unit hydrograph (WFIUH)\ud rainfall-runoff model is applied to derive a flow hydrograph for the area\ud immediately upstream of the village. This hydrograph is inputted as an\ud upstream boundary condition for the simulation of the propagation processes.\ud A two-dimensional innovative hydraulic model is used to reproduce the flood\ud within the village. The use of an unstructured mesh enabled a detailed simulation\ud of water flow within the narrow and winding alleyways of the village. The\ud results of the simulations indicate agreement with the field observations. The\ud implemented approach is suitable for simulating flash floods in similar contexts\ud and, therefore, may be used to predict potential future events

In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework