The eastern North Pacific gray whale Eschrichtius robustus experienced an unusual mortality event (UME) in 2019-2020, with 384 whales found dead along the Pacific coasts of Mexico, USA and Canada. A similar UME in 1999-2000 was speculated to have been caused by starvation, but body condition data were not available to test this hypothesis. Between 2017 and 2019, we used unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) and photogrammetry methods to measure the body condition of gray whales in San Ignacio Lagoon, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Body condition was calculated from the residual of the relationship between body volume and length. The body condition of gray whales was significantly lower in 2018 (-11.1%, SE = 1.74, n = 531) and 2019 (-9.7%, SE = 1.76, n = 628) compared to 2017 (n = 59) for all reproductive classes (calves, juveniles, adults and lactating females). Overall, lactating females were in good body condition. The reduction in body condition of whales in 2018-2019 is unlikely to have affected their survival, but could have reduced their reproductive rate by prolonging the post-weaning recovery time. This could explain the low number of mother-calf pairs observed in the San Ignacio Lagoon in 2018 and 2019. For juveniles and adults that arrived in the lagoons with less energy reserves, their reduced body condition may have been close to their survival threshold. This could explain the high proportion of juveniles and adults among the stranded dead whales in 2019-2020. Although the underlying cause of the reduction in gray whale body condition is unknown, starvation likely contributed to the 2019-2020 UME.
Climate change is a global phenomenon, yet impacts on resource availability to predators may be spatially and temporally diverse and asynchronous. As capital breeders, whales are dependent on dense, predictable prey resources during foraging seasons. An Unusual Mortality Event (UME) of Eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) was declared in 2019 due to a dramatic rise in stranded animals, many emaciated. Climate change impacts may have affected prey availability on the primary foraging grounds of ENP gray whales (~20,000 individuals) in the Arctic and sub-Arctic region and in coastal habitats between northern California, USA and British Columbia, Canada where a small sub-group of ENP whales called the Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG; ~230 individuals) forages. To investigate variability of gray whale body condition relative to changing ocean conditions, we compare two datasets of gray whale aerial photogrammetry images collected via Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) on the ENP wintering grounds in San Ignacio Lagoon, Mexico (SIL; n=111) and on the PCFG feeding grounds in Oregon, USA (n=72) over the same three-year period (2017–2019). We document concurrent body condition improvement of PCFG whales in Oregon while body condition of whales in SIL declined. This result indicates that the UME may have affected ENP whales due to reduced energetic gain on some Arctic/sub-Arctic foraging grounds, while PCFG whales are recovering from poor prey conditions during the NE Pacific marine heatwave event of 2014–2016. Surprisingly, we found that PCFG whales in Oregon had significantly worse body condition than whales in SIL, even when accounting for year and phenology. We derive support for this unexpected finding via photogrammetry analysis of opportunistic aerial images of gray whales on Arctic foraging grounds (n=18) compared to PCFG whales in Oregon (n=30): the body condition of PCFG whales was significantly lower (t=2.96, p=0.005), which may cause PCFG whales to have reduced reproductive capacity or resilience to environmental perturbations compared to ENP whales. Overall, our study elucidates divergent gray whale body condition across sub-groups and time, and we demonstrate the value of UAS to effectively monitor and identify the physiological response of whales to climate change.
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