The scarcity of groundwater storage change data at the global scale hinders our ability to monitor groundwater resources effectively. In this study, we assimilate a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial water storage product derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations into NASA's Catchment land surface model (CLSM) at the global scale, with the goal of generating groundwater storage time series that are useful for drought monitoring and other applications. Evaluation using in situ data from nearly 4,000 wells shows that GRACE data assimilation improves the simulation of groundwater, with estimation errors reduced by 36% and 10% and correlation improved by 16% and 22% at the regional and point scales, respectively. The biggest improvements are observed in regions with large interannual variability in precipitation, where simulated groundwater responds too strongly to changes in atmospheric forcing. The positive impacts of GRACE data assimilation are further demonstrated using observed low‐flow data. CLSM and GRACE data assimilation performance is also examined across different permeability categories. The evaluation reveals that GRACE data assimilation fails to compensate for the lack of a groundwater withdrawal scheme in CLSM when it comes to simulating realistic groundwater variations in regions with intensive groundwater abstraction. CLSM‐simulated groundwater correlates strongly with 12‐month precipitation anomalies in low‐latitude and midlatitude areas. A groundwater drought indicator based on GRACE data assimilation generally agrees with other regional‐scale drought indicators, with discrepancies mainly in their estimated drought severity.

A new version of a real-time global flood monitoring system (GFMS) driven by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) rainfall has been developed and implemented using a physically based hydrologic model. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of this new version of the GFMS in terms of flood event detection against flood event archives to establish a baseline of performance and directions for improvement. This new GFMS is quantitatively evaluated in terms of flood event detection during the TRMM era (1998–2010) using a global retrospective simulation (3-hourly and ⅛° spatial resolution) with the TMPA 3B42V6 rainfall. Four methods were explored to define flood thresholds from the model results, including three percentile-based statistical methods and a Log Pearson type-III flood frequency curve method. The evaluation showed the GFMS detection performance improves [increasing probability of detection (POD)] with longer flood durations and larger affected areas. The impact of dams was detected in the validation statistics, with the presence of dams tending to result in more false alarms and greater false-alarm duration. The GFMS validation statistics for flood durations >3 days and for areas without dams vary across the four methods, but center around a POD of ~0.70 and a false-alarm rate (FAR) of ~0.65. The generally positive results indicate the value of this approach for monitoring and researching floods on a global scale, but also indicate limitations and directions for improvement of such approaches. These directions include improving the rainfall estimates, utilizing higher resolution in the runoff-routing model, taking into account the presence of dams, and improving the method for flood identification.

A new method for flood detection change detection and thresholding (CDAT) was used with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to delineate the extent of flooding for the Chobe floodplain in the Caprivi region of Namibia. This region experiences annual seasonal flooding and has seen a recent renewal of severe flooding after a long dry period in the 1990s. Flooding in this area has caused loss of life and livelihoods for the surrounding communities and has caught the attention of disaster relief agencies. There is a need for flood extent mapping techniques that can be used to process images quickly, providing near real-time flooding information to relief agencies. ENVISAT/ASAR and Radarsat-2 images were acquired for several flooding seasons from February 2008 to March 2013. The CDAT method was used to determine flooding from these images and includes the use of image subtraction, decision-based classification with threshold values, and segmentation of SAR images. The total extent of flooding determined for 2009, 2011 and 2012 was about 542 km 2 , 720 km 2 , and 673 km 2 respectively. Pixels determined to be flooded in vegetation were typically <0.5% of the entire scene, with the exception of 2009 where the detection of flooding in vegetation was much greater (almost one third of the total flooded area). The time to maximum flooding for the 2013 flood season was determined to be about 27 days. Landsat water classification was used to compare the results from the new CDAT with SAR method; the results show good spatial agreement with Landsat scenes.

The Coupled Routing and Excess STorage model (CREST, jointly developed by the University of Oklahoma and NASA SERVIR) is a distributed hydrological model developed to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of land surface, and subsurface water fluxes and storages by cell-to-cell simulation. CREST's distinguishing characteristics include: (1) distributed rainfall-runoff generation and cell-to-cell routing; (2) coupled runoff generation and routing via three feedback mechanisms; and (3) representation of sub-grid cell variability of soil moisture storage capacity and sub-grid cell routing (via linear reservoirs). The coupling between the runoff generation and routing mechanisms allows detailed and realistic treatment of hydrological variables such as soil moisture. Furthermore, the representation of soil moisture variability and routing processes at the sub-grid scale enables the CREST model to be readily scalable to multi-scale modelling research. This paper presents the model development and demonstrates its applicability for a case study in the Nzoia basin located in Lake Victoria, Africa.Key words distributed hydrological model; cell-to-cell routing; excess storage; water balance; CREST; Lake Victoria Le modèle hydrologique distribué couplé routage et stockage des excédents (CREST)Résumé Le modèle couplé routage et stockage des excédents (CREST, développé conjointement par l'Université de l'Oklahoma et NASA SERVIR) est un modèle hydrologique distribué développé pour simuler les variations spatiales et temporelles des flux d'eau de surface et souterraine ainsi que les stockages, par simulation de cellule à cellule. Les caractéristiques distinctives de CREST sont les suivantes: (1) production pluie-débit distribuée et routage de cellule à cellule; (2) couplage de la production et du routage du ruissellement via trois mécanismes de rétroaction; et (3) représentation de la variabilité sub-cellulaire de la capacité de stockage en eau du sol et du routage infra-cellulaire (via des réservoirs linéaires). Le couplage entre la genèse du ruissellement et les mécan-ismes de routage permet un traitement détaillé et réaliste des variables hydrologiques telles que l'humidité du sol. En outre, la représentation de la variabilité de l'humidité du sol et des processus de routage à l'échelle subcellulaire permet au modèle CREST d'être facilement étendu à la recherche sur la modélisation multi-échelles. Cet article présente le développement du modèle et démontre son applicabilité pour une étude de cas dans le bassin de la Nzoia, Lac Victoria, Afrique.Mots clefs modèle hydrologique distribué; routage de cellule à cellule; stockage des excédents; bilan hydrique; CREST; Lac Victoria

Floods are among the most catastrophic natural disasters around the globe impacting human lives and infrastructure. Implementation of a flood prediction system can potentially help mitigate flood-induced hazards. Such a system typically requires implementation and calibration of a hydrologic model using in situ observations (i.e., rain and stream gauges). Recently, satellite remote sensing data have emerged as a viable alternative or supplement to in situ observations due to their availability over vast ungauged regions. The focus of this study is to integrate the best available satellite products within a distributed hydrologic model to characterize the spatial extent of flooding and associated hazards over sparsely gauged or ungauged basins. We present a methodology based entirely on satellite remote sensing data to set up and calibrate a hydrologic model, simulate the spatial extent of flooding, and evaluate the probability of detecting inundated areas. A raster-based distributed hydrologic model, Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST), was implemented for the Nzoia basin, a subbasin of Lake Victoria in Africa. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Terra-based and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer-based flood inundation maps were produced over the region and used to benchmark the distributed hydrologic model simulations of inundation areas. The analysis showed the value of integrating satellite data such as precipitation, land cover type, topography, and other products along with space-based flood inundation extents as inputs to the distributed hydrologic model. We conclude that the quantification of flooding spatial extent through optical sensors can help to calibrate and evaluate hydrologic models and, hence, potentially improve hydrologic prediction and flood management strategies in ungauged catchments.

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA's standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985-2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short-or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.

The Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, which accounts for 20%-25% of the global carbon emissions from biomass burning, also suffers from frequent drought episodes and other disruptions to the hydrological cycle whose adverse societal impacts have been widely reported during the last several decades. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the NSSA regional climate system components that may be linked to biomass burning, as well as detailed analyses of a variety of satellite data for 2001-2014 in conjunction with relevant model-assimilated variables. Satellite fire detections in NSSA show that the vast majority (>75%) occurs in the savanna and woody savanna land-cover types. Starting in the 2006-2007 burning season through the end of the analyzed data in 2014, peak burning activity showed a net decrease of 2-7%/yr in different parts of NSSA, especially in the savanna regions. However, fire distribution shows appreciable coincidence with land-cover change. Although there is variable mutual exchange of different land cover types, during 2003-2013, cropland increased at an estimated rate of 0.28%/yr of the total NSSA land area, with most of it (0.18%/yr) coming from savanna. During the last decade, conversion to croplands increased in some areas classified as forests and wetlands, posing a threat to these vital and vulnerable ecosystems. Seasonal peak burning is anticorrelated with annual water-cycle indicators such as precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, and evapotranspiration, except in humid West Africa (5°-10°latitude), where this anti-correlation occurs exclusively in the dry season and burning virtually stops when monthly mean precipitation reaches 4 mm d −1 . These results provide observational evidence of changes in land-cover and hydrological variables that are consistent with feedbacks from biomass burning in NSSA, and encourage more synergistic modeling and observational studies that can elaborate this feedback mechanism.

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun-Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1-2 day and 30-60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system's capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system's performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.A. Pulkkinen (