Electric power systems underlie all of modern society. Without mains electricity, for instance during power outages, almost all economic activity and many other aspects of life would simply stop. This, combined with the investment and operating costs incurred in enhancing reliability, makes risk and reliability modelling of energy systems an important topic for study. The need to reduce the carbon intensity of energy use while maintaining appropriate reliability levels provides a further driver for current research in the field; in addition to decarbonizing existing electricity production, the most efficient way of reducing carbon emissions from heating and transport is often to electrify them.Much of the focus of decarbonization is on the introduction of generation technologies which are inherently more variable and less controllable than conventional generation. These so-called intermittent or variable generation technologies pose new challenges for the modelling of risk and reliability.Methods for risk and reliability assessment of energy systems are in a period of rapid development. From the engineering side, new technologies are being deployed very rapidly, such as renewable generation, storage and responsive demand, plus innovative system state measurement and estimation techniques which can enhance system resilience. There is also increased regulatory pressure to reduce costs by adopting more risk-based methods for planning and operation, which would often replace historic deterministic standards (such as specifying a particular level of redundancy in network planning).The physical laws which govern electric power systems present a number of special modelling challenges, including the following.
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