Following the paper by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990), many scientists have focused their research on the ULF geomagnetic field pulsations in the hope of finding possible anomalous signals caused by the seismic activity. Thereafter, many papers have reported ULF geomagnetic field polarization ratio increases which have been claimed to be related to the occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes. Even if there is no firm evidence of correlation between the polarization ratio increase and seismic events, these publications maintain that these "anomalous" increases are without doubt precursors of pending earthquakes. Furthermore, several researchers suggest that these seismogenic signals may be considered a promising approach towards the possibility of developing short-term earthquake prediction capabilities based on electromagnetic precursory signatures. On the contrary, a part of the scientific community emphasizes the lack of validation of claimed seismogenic anomalies and doubt their association with the seismic activity. Since earthquake prediction is a very important topic of social importance, the authenticity of earthquake precursors needs to be carefully checked. The aim of this paper is to investigate the reliability of the ULF magnetic polarization ratio changes as an earthquakes' precursor. Several polarization ratio increases of the geomagnetic field, which previous researchers have claimed to have a seismogenic origin, are put into question by a qualitative investigation. The analysis takes into 2 account both the temporal evolution of the geomagnetic field polarization ratio reported in previous papers, and the global geomagnetic activity behaviour. Running averages of the geomagnetic index K p are plotted onto the original figures from previous publications. Moreover, further quantitative analyses are also reported. Here, nine cases are investigated which include seventeen earthquakes. In seven cases it is shown that the suggested association between the geomagnetic field polarization ratio increases and the earthquake preparation process seems to be rather doubtful. More precisely, the claimed seismogenic polarization ratio increases are actually closely related to decreases in the geomagnetic activity level. Furthermore, the last two investigated cases seem to be doubtful as well, although a close correspondence between polarization ratio and geomagnetic activity cannot be unambiguously demonstrated.

[1] During the last ten years, fractal analysis of ultra low frequency (ULF) geomagnetic field components has been proposed as one of the most promising tools to highlight magnetic precursory signals possibly generated by the preparation processes of earthquakes. Several papers claim seismogenic changes in the fractal features of the geomagnetic field some months before earthquakes occur. The target of the present paper is to put forth a qualitative investigation on the fractal characteristics of ULF magnetic signatures that previous authors have claimed to be related without doubt to strong earthquakes. This analysis takes into account both the temporal evolution of the geomagnetic field fractal parameters reported in previous researches and the temporal evolution of global geomagnetic activity. Running averages of the geomagnetic indices SK p and A p are plotted into the original figures from the previous publications. This simple analysis shows that the fractal features of the ULF geomagnetic field are closely related to the geomagnetic activity both before and after the earthquake occurs. The correlation between the geomagnetic field fractal parameters and geomagnetic activity is clearly shown over both long and short time scales. In light of this, the present paper shows that fractal behaviors of previously claimed seismogenic ULF magnetic signatures depend mainly on geomagnetic activity due to solar-terrestrial interaction. Therefore, previously reported association with the preparation process of the earthquake is dubious.

Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) claimed that anomalous, yet similar, increases of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) started~40 min prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, as well as before other M w > 8 earthquakes. The authors concluded that the reported TEC anomalies were likely related to the pending earthquakes, suggesting also that TEC monitoring may be useful for future earthquake prediction. Here we carefully examine the findings of Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) by performing new analyses of the same TEC data. Our interpretation is that the 40 min onset of the ionospheric precursors is an artifact induced by the definition of the reference line adopted in analyzing TEC variations. We also discuss this repeatability in the tectonic and geodynamic context of the earthquakes. By performing a Superimposed Epoch Analysis of TEC data, we show that, however, the TEC increase reported by Heki (2011) was not particularly anomalous. We conclude that the TEC precursors reported by Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) are not useful for developing short-term earthquake prediction capabilities.

Abstract. Pulinets et al. (2007) document anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week before the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. The authors maintain that this TEC anomalous change is a precursor of the subsequent earthquake. In a previous paper, Afraimovich et al. (2004) excluded that TEC variations, which occurred before the Hector Mine earthquake, were induced by the preparation process of the seismic event. Thomas et al. (2012) reach similar conclusions by performing new analyses of the same TEC data which were investigated by Pulinets et al. (2007). They show that the TEC changes documented by Pulinets et al. (2007) are not anomalous but normal variations on global scale, and, therefore, these changes are not related to the localised seismic activity of the Hector Mine area. This paper confirms the results of Afraimovich et al. (2004) and Thomas et al. (2012). Through the use of geomagnetic indices time series it is shown that the presumed precursor of Pulinets et al. (2007) was a normal TEC variation induced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

There are many reports on the occurrence of anomalous changes in the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not these changes are reliable precursors that could be useful for earthquake prediction is controversial within the scientific community. To test a possible statistical relationship between ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes, we compare changes in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere with occurrences of 1279 M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes globally for 2000–2014. We use TEC data from the global ionosphere map (GIM) and an earthquake list declustered for aftershocks. For each earthquake, we look for anomalous changes in GIM‐TEC within 2.5° latitude and 5.0° longitude of the earthquake location (the spatial resolution of GIM‐TEC). Although case studies of individual earthquakes that used short periods of data sometimes yield GIM‐TEC changes that were considered possible earthquake‐related phenomena, our analysis has not found any statistically significant changes prior to earthquakes when considering all 1279 earthquakes together. Thus, we have found no evidence that would suggest that monitoring changes in GIM‐TEC might be useful for predicting earthquakes.