The paper describes the various kindsof forecasting of gas demand which are carried out within the British Gas Corporation (BGC). Forecasting is considered according to the period ahead to which it refers, and separate sections consider: within day and day-to-day; between one month and one year ahead; between one and five years ahead; beyond five years.The paper is descriptive rather than normative and it does not claim to cover every application exhaustively. The major applications are day-to-day forecasting of total gas send-out, for control purposes, and annual and peak day demand forecasting for the period one to five years ahead for planning purposes.The relationship between demand and temperature is relatively stable over periods of a few months and it has been found that Box-Jenkins models give good day-to-day forecasts. The form of these models is described and the problems of implementing them in practice are discussed.In the case of annual demand forecasting each Region makes forecasts for its own geographical area for each market sector within a framework of economic and marketing assumptions set by Headquarters. For each annual demand forecast a demand/temperature relationship is forecast which is consistent with it. The paper describes this relationship and the way it is used to forecast the peak demand corresponding to specified severe winter conditions.
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