[Abstract unavailable

No abstract

BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a major two-wave seventeen-month-long outbreak in La Réunion Island in 2005–2006. The aim of this study was to refine clinical estimates provided by a regional surveillance-system using a two-stage serological assessment as gold standard.MethodsTwo serosurveys were implemented: first, a rapid survey using stored sera of pregnant women, in order to assess the attack rate at the epidemic upsurge (s1, February 2006; n = 888); second, a population-based survey among a random sample of the community, to assess the herd immunity in the post-epidemic era (s2, October 2006; n = 2442). Sera were screened for anti-CHIKV specific antibodies (IgM and IgG in s1, IgG only in s2) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Seroprevalence rates were compared to clinical estimates of attack rates.ResultsIn s1, 18.2% of the pregnant women were tested positive for CHIKV specific antibodies (13.8% for both IgM and IgG, 4.3% for IgM, 0.1% for IgG only) which provided a congruent estimate with the 16.5% attack rate calculated from the surveillance-system. In s2, the seroprevalence in community was estimated to 38.2% (95% CI, 35.9 to 40.6%). Extrapolations of seroprevalence rates led to estimate, at 143,000 and at 300,000 (95% CI, 283,000 to 320,000), the number of people infected in s1 and in s2, respectively. In comparison, the surveillance-system estimated at 130,000 and 266,000 the number of people infected for the same periods.ConclusionA rapid serosurvey in pregnant women can be helpful to assess the attack rate when large seroprevalence studies cannot be done. On the other hand, a population-based serosurvey is useful to refine the estimate when clinical diagnosis underestimates it. Our findings give valuable insights to assess the herd immunity along the course of epidemics.

We conducted a population-based cohort study in 7598 white healthy women, aged 75 years and over, recruited from the voting lists. We measured at baseline bone mineral density (BMD g/cm2) of the proximal femur (neck, trochanter and Ward's triangle) and the whole body, as well as fat and lean body mass, by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). One hundred and fifty-four women underwent a hip fracture during an average 2 years follow-up. Each standard deviation decrease in BMD increased the risk of hip fracture adjusted for age, weight and centre by 1.9 (95% CL 1.5, 2.3) for the femoral neck, 2.6 times (2.0, 3.3) for the trochanter, 1.8 times (1.4, 2.2) for Ward's triangle, 1.6 times (1.2, 2.0) for the whole body, and 1.3 times (1.0, 1.5) for the fat mass. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were not significantly different between trochanter and femoral neck BMD, whereas ROC curves of femoral neck and trochanter BMD were significantly better than those for Ward's triangle and whole-body BMD. Women who sustained an intertrochanteric fracture were older (84 +/- 4.5 years) than women who had a cervical fracture (81 +/- 4.5 years) and trochanter BMD seemed to be a stronger predictor of intertrochanteric ([RR = 4.5 (3.1, 6.5)] than cervical fractures ([RR = 1.8 (1.5, 2.3]). In very elderly women aged 80 years and more, hip BMD was still a significant predictor of hip fracture but the relative risk was significantly lower than in women younger than 80 years. In the 48% of women who had a femoral neck BMD T-score less than -2.5, the relative risk of hip fracture was increased by 3, and the unadjusted incidence of hip fracture was 16.4 per 1000 woman-years compared with 1.1 in the population with a femoral neck BMD T-score > or = -1.

Chikungunya virus infection may be responsible for very severe clinical presentation, including young patients with unremarkable medical histories. Chikungunya virus infection is strongly suspected to have neurologic, hepatic, and myocardial tropism leading to dramatic complications and high mortality rate.