Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries . Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade À1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

Several methods have been used in plant phenology to find the best starting date in spring and the best threshold or basic temperature for growth and development of perennial plants. In the present paper the date giving the highest correlation coefficient for development to various phenophases, in relation to 24-hourly mean air temperatures was chosen as the best starting value in further analyses. For many woody plants this date was very often found to be 1 April based on phenological and climatological observations at about 60 sites in western Norway (at about 61°N). The early flowering species Corylus avellana and Salix caprea and the early leaf-bud breaking Prunus padus seemed to start development earlier in Spring, while the late sprouting Fraxinus excelsior showed the highest correlation coefficient using 15 April. If daytime temperatures were used in the calculations, the "best" starting date was generally found to be later than for the 24-hour mean temperatures. This variation must be seen as resulting from the different basic temperatures for the development of various species. Estimates of basic temperatures in various species and periods may be given, for example by finding the value having the least variance in heat sums or by various regression analyses. A technique has been developed to minimise the influence of significance of correlation, using the intercept with the temperature axis by merging the two least squares rectilinear regression lines that can be found between plant development and mean air temperature (from the estimated best starting date) at r=+1 or -1. The basic temperature seemed to vary from -5.9°C for leaf-bud break of P. padus to 5.5°C for leaf-bud break of F. excelsior, with basic temperatures of several other woody plants having intermediate values. These values are compared with those found by other methods.& k w d : Key words Phenology · Starting date · Threshold temperature · Basic temperature · Woody plants& b d y :Prepared in conjunction with a presentation made at the ISB

The study focuses on vegetation changes in the Nordic mountain birch forest in northern Norway, covering a period of more than 40 yr. The study area comprises the municipalities of Kautokeino and Karasjok on Finnmarkskvidda; it is predominantly covered by lichen and dwarf shrub vegetation. Sizes of various vegetation classes were estimated by the use of remote-sensing techniques and ground surveys. A significant change in vegetation cover during the study period was registered in the whole study area. Vegetation types dominated by bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), wavy hair-grass (Deschampsia fleuxuosa), the dwarf cornel (Cornus suecica), and mosses have tripled in abundance compared to 40 yr ago. In contrast, lichen-dominated heaths and woodland (forests), preferred by the reindeer stocks intensively utilizing these areas of Finnmarksvidda, have decreased by approximately 80% in abundance during the same period. Correspondingly, there has been a significant increase in the extent of birch forests especially in Kautokeino (90% increase). The reason for the steep decline in lichen-dominated areas appears to be a direct consequence of the intensive grazing by the increasing reindeer population in the period 1961-1987, but climate change (increased precipitation), caterpillar attacks, and long-transported air pollution (e.g., nitrogen) may also have accentuated the increase of forests and other vegetation types.

No abstract

Fennoscandia is characterized by a large degree of climatic diversity. Vegetation phenology may respond differently to climate change according to the climatic gradients within the region. To map the annual and spatial variability of the start of the growing season (SOS) in Fennoscandia, the twice-monthly GIMMS-NDVI satellite dataset was used. The data set has an 8 x 8 km(2) spatial resolution and covers the period from 1982 to 2002. The mapping was done by applying pixel-specific threshold values to the NDVI data. These threshold values were determined form surface phenology data on birch (Betula sp.). Then, we produced NDVI based maps of SOS for each of the 21 years. Finally, the time differences between the SOS and the last day of snow cover, as well as dates of passing different temperatures, were analyzed for 21 meteorological stations. The analyses showed that 1985 was the most extreme year in terms of late SOS. In terms of early SOS, the year 1990 was by far the most extreme. Locally, the SOS has an average range of 1 month between the earliest and latest recorded SOS, with a trend towards a bigger range in the oceanic parts. The results indicate that a 1 degrees C increase in spring temperatures in general corresponds to an advancement of 5-6 days in SOS. However, there is a clear trend according to the degree of oceanity, with a 1 degrees C increase in the most oceanic parts corresponding roughly to 7-9 days earlier SOS, compared to less than 5 days earlier in the continental parts.