The floristic differences found in vegetation ranging from sedgeland-heath to rainforest were sampled by the placement of 80 quadrats in an area 2 km2 near Bathurst Harbour, Tasmania. A direct gradient analysis using the time since last fire as the major axis of variation suggests that the changing species composition of sites is both gradational and fire-related. This interpretation is supported by a point- centred quarter analysis of the forested communities and by Principal Coordinates and Detrended Correspondence Analyses of the entire vegetation sequence. Previous descriptive models based on correlations between he frequency and structural formations are confirmed by this study. A broad correlation between fire frequency and floristic associations within non-forested vegetation is also demonstrated. However, explanation of detailed patterns requires consideration of the total fire regime (including duration and intensity of fire) and its interaction with edaphic factors. For example, fires which burn in peat lead to hysteresis in the successional pathways.
Climatic profiles were generated by the computer program BIOCLIM for three sets of sites in native vegetation in Tasmania: (i) 30S sites at which Phytophthora cinnamomi was isolated from diseased plants Pc + ive: (ii) 322 sites in healthy plant communities from which P. cinnamomi could not be recovered Pc -ive: and (Hi) 801 sites representing the climatic range across Tasmania. A discriminatory analysis comparing the first and third sets indicated that seven of the 16 climatic indices available for analysis were good discriminators of the distribution of damage by P. cinnamomi. The analysis suggests that damage to native vegetation due to P. cinnamomi is unlikely on sites where annual mean temperature does not exceed 7.5°C or annual mean rainfall is < 600 mm. Two maps were produced to indicate those areas of Tasmania that have climates .suited to damaging interaction between P. cinnamomi and native vegetation. The first was based on those sites that had annual mean temperature more than 7.5°C and annual mean rainfall less than 600 mm. The second included those sites that matched the values of the Pc + ive set for all seven good discriminators. The two approaches produced similar results. Areas in which even the most favourable microsites are unlikely to support pathogenic activity by P. cinnamomi constitute less than 20% of the land area. Twelve substantial areas of native vegetation that occur in climates suited to infection by P.cinnamomi. but for which no record of the fungus exists, have been identified.
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