The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.
Eradication is a management strategy that can provide substantial ecological and economic benefits by eliminating incursions of pest organisms. In contrast to eradication efforts that target other pests, weed eradication programs can be very protracted owing to the presence of persistent seed banks and difficulties in detecting the target. Hence there is a need to develop criteria to assist in the evaluation of progress towards eradication. Knowledge of the extent of a weed incursion (the 'delimitation' criterion) is considered fundamental for eradication success, as an incursion will progress from any infestations that remain undetected and thus uncontrolled. This criterion is examined with regard to eradication programs targeting Bassia scoparia L. A.J. Scott [= Kochia scoparia L. Schrader], Chondrilla juncea L. (both in Western Australia) and Orobanche ramosa L. in South Australia. The B. scoparia incursion, which has been eradicated, was largely delimited within 12 months of the inception of its eradication program. In contrast, the Western Australian C. juncea incursion has never been delimited, owing to insufficient investment in surveillance during an eradication program spanning 30 years. An exponential decrease in the detection ratio (infested area detected/area searched) over time suggests that delimitation has been approached within 6 years of the inception of the eradication program for O. ramosa . An effective surveillance program is essential for achieving delimitation of a weed incursion.
Generalist avian frugivores often play an important role in the processes of naturalization and invasion for plants introduced for ornamental and landscaping purposes. We investigated the potential role of Australian birds in the current invasion of riparian habitats and coastal wetlands by the ornamental Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi. Feeding trials in captivity predicted silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis Latham) as dispersal vectors for this weed. There were no differences in either total germination or germination rate between seeds voided by caged silvereyes and those from which exocarps had been removed manually. Germination of seeds incubated within entire fruits was minimal, as was emergence from intact fruits in a field experiment. Seed banks of S. terebinthifolius were relatively transient under field conditions, with no seeds surviving for 9 months. Since fewer than 5% of the seeds in sown whole fruits gave rise to seedlings (cf. 20–42% for sown bare seeds), we conclude that recruitment potential of S. terebinthifolius is highly dependent upon the consumption of its fruits by frugivores.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.