This work presents a detailed scientific concept of an operational warning system concerning weather hazards, which is a component of the IT System for Country's Protection against extreme hazards currently under development in Poland. The system displays eight weather hazards that prevail in Poland (air temperature extremes, heavy rainfall, strong wind, intensive snowfall, fog, glaze, rime, and thunderstorms with hail), which are presented on the maps. The information will also be made available to the public in the form of warnings sent automatically via the Internet or text messages. The weather hazard maps consist of two highly complementary components. The first contains maps of areas vulnerable to the hazards' occurrence (climatological maps). These are based on observational and measurement data covering the period of 1951/1966-2010. The second component consists of operational maps based on current weather conditions, including primarily predictive data provided by the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model ALADIN (warning maps). The climatological information has been applied to the operational maps for several extremes not directly predicted by the ALADIN model.
Abstract. Meteorological hazard maps are one of the components of the IT System for Country Protection against extreme hazards (ISOK) created by a consortium of Polish institutions, including the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management -National Research Institute. These maps present meteorological phenomena such as: temperature extremes, heavy and flood-producing rainfall, strong winds, intensive snowfall, fogs, glaze, rime and thunderstorms with hail. These elements were chosen arbitrarily due to recorded or estimated losses. The main aim of the maps is to present visualization methods of hazard forecast with consideration of climatological (historical) background. To identify areas especially exposed to the above meteorological hazards, extensive climatological analyses were performed, based on long-term daily data (mainly the 1951-2010 period). The main component of the warning system is a set of prediction maps created automatically on the basis of scientific algorithms that provide the probability of the occurrence of particular phenomena, or the conditions favourable for them. The algorithms' structure, based on information about physical processes in the atmosphere, as well as detailed climatological analysis, enables the reclassification of the forecast values -predicted by the ALADIN mesoscale atmospheric model -into four groups of any hazard at the gridded points. Finally, the information will be interpolated and will result in the production of maps of spatial distribution presenting the objective probability of a particular hazard, i.e. its actual risk. Results of historical analysis are to be presented for the public by a number of climatological maps, and accompanied by additional fact sheets to provide society with an actual view of the spatial distribution of the distinguished weather phenomena, and the interrelated risks.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.