Abstract:We propose an approach to the computation of age-related reference ranges which guarantees that the proportion of sampled data points covered by the reference band has an arbitrarily specified value. Unlike other approaches in the literature, this method does not have to rely on parametric distributional assumptions. The boundaries of the bands are given by smooth curves, and for modeling the mean as a function of age, a sufficiently flexible class of monotonically increasing functions is used, since in the applications all measured variables are biological growth parameters. The width of the reference band is allowed to be proportional to any suitably fixed function of age which we propose in practice to be taken linear. The approach is illustrated by examples from a large-scale study of the distribution of fetal size measurements obtained by routine prenatal sonography.
Plankton are effective indicators of environmental change and ecosystem health in freshwater habitats, but collection of plankton data using manual microscopic methods is extremely labor-intensive and expensive. Automated plankton imaging offers a promising way forward to monitor plankton communities with high frequency and accuracy in real-time. Yet, manual annotation of millions of images proposes a serious challenge to taxonomists. Deep learning classifiers have been successfully applied in various fields and provided encouraging results when used to categorize marine plankton images. Here, we present a set of deep learning models developed for the identification of lake plankton, and study several strategies to obtain optimal performances, which lead to operational prescriptions for users. To this aim, we annotated into 35 classes over 17900 images of zooplankton and large phytoplankton colonies, detected in Lake Greifensee (Switzerland) with the Dual Scripps Plankton Camera. Our best models were based on transfer learning and ensembling, which classified plankton images with 98% accuracy and 93% F1 score. When tested on freely available plankton datasets produced by other automated imaging tools (ZooScan, Imaging FlowCytobot, and ISIIS), our models performed better than previously used models. Our annotated data, code and classification models are freely available online.
Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities.
Estimating the distribution of phenotypes in populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolutionary biology. These distributions can be characterized by their moments: the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Typically, these moments are calculated using a community-weighted approach (e.g. community-weighted mean) which ignores intraspecific variation. As an alternative, bootstrapping approaches can incorporate intraspecific variation to improve estimates, and also quantify uncertainty in the estimate. Here, we compare the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across a variety of sampling scenarios, taxa, and datasets. We introduce the traitstrap R package to facilitate inferences of trait distributions via bootstrapping. Our results suggest that randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, focusing on covering all species in the community, and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enables reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities.
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