The article presents the concept of environmental efficiency analysis based on the method of Data Envelopment Analysis in the case of the existence of desirable and undesirable results. Theoretical considerations are illustrated by a case study of European countries and evaluation of productivity taking into account not only economic growth but also effects which are undesirable and impossible to eliminate entirely, such as the impact on the environment. The differences in the results are explained by the relationship between policies aiming at supporting research and development with the use of the Tobit regression model. The added value of this work is to propose an integration of environmental DEA method with the concept of technological competitors. The possibility of applying the concept of DEA to technological competition was presented in the form of classification and benchmarking of the European countries. It is concluded that European countries are highly diversified in regard to the efficiency of environmental performance.
The primary problems pertaining to productivity or – more precisely – efficiency are: how to define it and how to measure it. This article studies technical efficiency in Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) – the input-oriented frontier model – in the construction industry and compares it with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) results. The models explored in this paper were constructed on the basis of two outputs and personnel cost as an input. The research sample consisted of European countries. The aim was to determine whether there are substantial differences in estimation of efficiency derived from those two alternative frontier approaches. The comparison of results according to the models may translate into higher reliability of the undertaken labour efficiency analysis in construction and its conclusions. Although the results are not characterized by high compatibility, the conducted analysis indicated the most attractive countries taking into account labour cost to profit and turnover ratios of enterprises. One of the determinants which should not be ignored when analysing the labour efficiency is the level of development of a country; however, it is not the sole factor affecting the efficiency of the sector.
The paper addresses the problem of insufficient knowledge on the impact of noise on the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identification. The work offers a simulation-based solution to the analysis of the tolerance to noise of ARIMA models in electrical load forecasting. In the study, an idealized ARIMA model obtained from real load data of the Polish power system was disturbed by noise of different levels. The model was then re-identified, its parameters were estimated, and new forecasts were calculated. The experiment allowed us to evaluate the robustness of ARIMA models to noise in their ability to predict electrical load time series. It could be concluded that the reaction of the ARIMA model to random disturbances of the modeled time series was relatively weak. The limiting noise level at which the forecasting ability of the model collapsed was determined. The results highlight the key role of the data preprocessing stage in data mining and learning. They contribute to more accurate decision making in an uncertain environment, help to shape energy policy, and have implications for the sustainability and reliability of power systems.
The increasing demand for clean energy and the global shift towards renewable sources necessitate reliable solar radiation forecasting for the effective integration of solar energy into the energy system. Reliable solar radiation forecasting has become crucial for the design, planning, and operational management of energy systems, especially in the context of ambitious greenhouse gas emission goals. This paper presents a study on the application of auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for the seasonal forecasting of solar radiation in different climatic conditions. The performance and prediction capacity of ARIMA models are evaluated using data from Jordan and Poland. The essence of ARIMA modeling and analysis of the use of ARIMA models both as a reference model for evaluating other approaches and as a basic forecasting model for forecasting renewable energy generation are presented. The current state of renewable energy source utilization in selected countries and the adopted transition strategies to a more sustainable energy system are investigated. ARIMA models of two time series (for monthly and hourly data) are built for two locations and a forecast is developed. The research findings demonstrate that ARIMA models are suitable for solar radiation forecasting and can contribute to the stable long-term integration of solar energy into countries’ systems. However, it is crucial to develop location-specific models due to the variability of solar radiation characteristics. This study provides insights into the use of ARIMA models for solar radiation forecasting and highlights their potential for supporting the planning and operation of energy systems.
The complexity and speed of change in technological systems pose new challenges to technology management. Particular attention should be given to the issue of modelling the uncertainty of assessments and creating rules for determining the weights of the technology assessment criteria. The article aims to present a comprehensive hybrid technology prioritisation model based on the Data Envelopment Analysis and the concept of Rough Sets. The technology prioritisation process that uses the proposed model includes three consecutive stages: (i) the formulation of technology assessment matrix, (ii) the removal of the criteria redundancy based on indiscernibility relation defined in the Rough Set Theory, (iii) the development of rough variables and prioritisation using the DEA super-efficiency model. The combination of DEA and RS is a unique proposal to classify and rank objects based on the tabular representation of their conditional attributes under circumstances of uncertainty. Application of the developed hybrid model to the real data of the technology foresight project “NT FOR Podlaskie 2020” positively verified the assumed effects of its use. The obtained results allow a more objective and rational justification of the chosen technology, simplification of interpretation and better authentication of results from the perspective of decision-makers.
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