SummaryBackgroundMenarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected women.MethodsIndividual data from 117 epidemiological studies, including 118 964 women with invasive breast cancer and 306 091 without the disease, none of whom had used menopausal hormone therapy, were included in the analyses. We calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) associated with menarche and menopause for breast cancer overall, and by tumour histology and by oestrogen receptor expression.FindingsBreast cancer risk increased by a factor of 1·050 (95% CI 1·044–1·057; p<0·0001) for every year younger at menarche, and independently by a smaller amount (1·029, 1·025–1·032; p<0·0001), for every year older at menopause. Premenopausal women had a greater risk of breast cancer than postmenopausal women of an identical age (RR at age 45–54 years 1·43, 1·33–1·52, p<0·001). All three of these associations were attenuated by increasing adiposity among postmenopausal women, but did not vary materially by women's year of birth, ethnic origin, childbearing history, smoking, alcohol consumption, or hormonal contraceptive use. All three associations were stronger for lobular than for ductal tumours (p<0·006 for each comparison). The effect of menopause in women of an identical age and trends by age at menopause were stronger for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease (p<0·01 for both comparisons).InterpretationThe effects of menarche and menopause on breast cancer risk might not be acting merely by lengthening women's total number of reproductive years. Endogenous ovarian hormones are more relevant for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease and for lobular than for ductal tumours.FundingCancer Research UK.

Purpose Biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic cancer are urgently needed. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether increased levels of serum CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1 and REG3A are present prior to clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer and to assess the performance of combined markers for early detection and prognosis. Experimental Design This nested case control study within UKCTOCS included 118 single- and 143 serial-serum samples from 154 post-menopausal women who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 304 matched non-cancer controls. Samples were split randomly into independent training and test sets. CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1 and REG3A were measured using ELISA and/or CLIA. Performance of markers to detect cancers at different times prior to diagnosis and for prognosis was evaluated. Results At 95% specificity, CA19-9 (>37 U/mL) had a sensitivity of 68% up to 1 year, and 53% up to 2 yrs before diagnosis. Combining CA19-9 and CA125 improved sensitivity as CA125 was elevated (>30 U/mL) in ~20% of CA19-9-negative cases. CEACAM1 and REG3A were late markers adding little in combined models. Average lead times of 20-23 months were estimated for test-positive cases. Pre-diagnostic levels of CA19-9 and CA125 were associated with poor overall survival (HR 2.69 and 3.15, respectively). Conclusions CA19-9 and CA125 have encouraging sensitivity for detecting pre-clinical pancreatic cancer and both markers can be used as prognostic tools. This work challenges the prevailing view that CA19-9 is up-regulated late in the course of pancreatic cancer development.

Recent reports suggest that autoantibodies directed to aberrantly glycosylated mucins, in particular MUC1 and MUC4, are found in patients with colorectal cancer. There is, however, limited information on the autoantibody levels before clinical diagnosis, and their utility in cancer screening in the general population. In our study, we have generated O-glycosylated synthetic MUC1 and MUC4 peptides in vitro, to mimic cancer-associated glycoforms, and displayed these on microarrays. The assay’s performance was tested through an initial screening of serum samples taken from patients at the time of colorectal cancer diagnosis and healthy controls. Subsequently, the selected biomarkers were evaluated in a blinded nested case–control study using stored serum samples from among the 50,640 women randomized to the multimodal arm of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), where women gave annual blood samples for several years. Cases were 97 postmenopausal women who developed colorectal cancer after recruitment and were age-matched to 97 women without any history of cancer. MUC1-STn and MUC1-Core3 IgG autoantibodies identified cases with 8.2 and 13.4% sensitivity, respectively, at 95% specificity. IgA to MUC4 glycoforms were unable to discriminate between cases and controls in the UKCTOCS sera. Additional analysis was undertaken by combining the data of MUC1-STn and MUC1-Core3 with previously generated data on autoantibodies to p53 peptides, which increased the sensitivity to 32.0% at 95% specificity. These findings suggest that a combination of antibody signatures may have a role as part of a biomarker panel for the early detection of colorectal cancer.

BackgroundBRCA1 mutation carriers have an 85% risk of developing breast cancer but the risk of developing non-hereditary breast cancer is difficult to assess. Our objective is to test whether a DNA methylation (DNAme) signature derived from BRCA1 mutation carriers is able to predict non-hereditary breast cancer.MethodsIn a case/control setting (72 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 72 BRCA1/2 wild type controls) blood cell DNA samples were profiled on the Illumina 27 k methylation array. Using the Elastic Net classification algorithm, a BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature was derived and tested in two cohorts: (1) The NSHD (19 breast cancers developed within 12 years after sample donation and 77 controls) and (2) the UKCTOCS trial (119 oestrogen receptor positive breast cancers developed within 5 years after sample donation and 122 controls).ResultsWe found that our blood-based BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature applied to blood cell DNA from women in the NSHD resulted in a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.78, P = 0.02) which did not validate in buccal cells from the same individuals. Applying the signature in blood DNA from UKCTOCS volunteers resulted in AUC of 0.57 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.64; P = 0.03) and is independent of family history or any other known risk factors. Importantly the BRCA1-mutation DNAme signature was able to predict breast cancer mortality (AUC = 0.67; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.83; P = 0.02). We also found that the 1,074 CpGs which are hypermethylated in BRCA1 mutation carriers are significantly enriched for stem cell polycomb group target genes (P <10-20).ConclusionsA DNAme signature derived from BRCA1 carriers is able to predict breast cancer risk and death years in advance of diagnosis. Future studies may need to focus on DNAme profiles in epithelial cells in order to reach the AUC thresholds required of preventative measures or early detection strategies.

Ovarian cancer (OC) has the highest mortality of all gynaecological cancers. Early diagnosis offers an approach to achieving better outcomes. We conducted a blinded‐evaluation of prospectively collected preclinical serum from participants in the multimodal group of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. Using isobaric tags (iTRAQ) we identified 90 proteins differentially expressed between OC cases and controls. A second targeted mass spectrometry analysis of twenty of these candidates identified Protein Z as a potential early detection biomarker for OC. This was further validated by ELISA analysis in 482 serial serum samples, from 80 individuals, 49 OC cases and 31 controls, spanning up to 7 years prior to diagnosis. Protein Z was significantly down‐regulated up to 2 years pre‐diagnosis (p = 0.000000411) in 8 of 19 Type I patients whilst in 5 Type II individuals, it was significantly up‐regulated up to 4 years before diagnosis (p = 0.01). ROC curve analysis for CA‐125 and CA‐125 combined with Protein Z showed a statistically significant (p= 0.00033) increase in the AUC from 77 to 81% for Type I and a statistically significant (p= 0.00003) increase in the AUC from 76 to 82% for Type II. Protein Z is a novel independent early detection biomarker for Type I and Type II ovarian cancer; which can discriminate between both types. Protein Z also adds to CA‐125 and potentially the Risk of Ovarian Cancer algorithm in the detection of both subtypes.

Breast cancer is the most common female cancer, affecting approximately one in eight women during their lifetime in North America and Europe. Receptor Activator of NF-kB Ligand (RANKL), its receptor RANK and the natural antagonist osteoprotegerin (OPG) are essential regulators of bone resorption. We have initially shown that RANKL/RANK are essential for hormone-driven mammary epithelial proliferation in pregnancy and RANKL/RANK have been implicated in mammary stem cell biology. Using genetic mouse-models, we and others identified the RANKL/RANK system as a key regulator of sex hormone, BRCA1-mutation, and oncogene-driven breast cancer and we proposed that RANKL/RANK might be involved in the initiation of breast tumors. We now report that in postmenopausal women without known genetic predisposition, high RANKL and progesterone serum levels stratify a subpopulation of women at high risk of developing breast cancer 12-24 months before diagnosis (5.33-fold risk, 95%CI 1.5-25.4; P=0.02). In women with established breast cancer, we demonstrate that RANKL/OPG ratios change dependent on the presence of circulating tumor cells (CTCs). Finally, we show in a prospective human breast cancer cohort that alterations in RANKL/OPG ratios are significantly associated with breast cancer manifestation. These data indicate that the RANKL/RANK/OPG system is deregulated in post-menopausal women at high risk for breast cancer and in women with circulating tumor cells. Thus, serum levels of RANKL/OPG are potentially indicative of predisposition and progression of breast cancer in humans. Advancement of our findings towards clinical application awaits prior validation in independent patient cohorts.

ObjectiveHopelessness is an important construct in psychosocial epidemiology, but there is great pressure on the length of questionnaire measures in large-scale population and clinical studies. We examined the validity and test–retest reliability of two brief measures of hopelessness, an existing negatively worded two-item measure of hopelessness (Brief-H-Neg) and a positively worded version of the same instrument (Brief-H-Pos).DesignCohort study.SettingControl arm of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening.ParticipantsA non-clinical research-based sample of 5000 postmenopausal women selected from 56 512 participants.Primary and secondary outcome measuresSpearman's rank correlation of brief measures of hopelessness with the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS). Spearman's rank correlation with the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and change in mean score on repeat testing.MethodsTwo short hopelessness measures, a negatively worded brief measure of hopelessness (Brief-H-Neg) and a positively worded brief measure of hopelessness (Brief-H-Pos), were administered by postal questionnaire to 5000 women together with the 20-item BHS and 20-item CES-D. The Brief-H-Neg and Brief-H-Pos were readministered to 500 women after a 2-week interval.Results2413 postmenopausal women (mean age 68.9 years) completed the questionnaire. The Brief-H-Neg and Brief-H-Pos correlated 0.93 and 0.87 with the BHS after correction for attenuation and their association with the CES-D mirrored that seen with the BHS (Spearman's rank correlation 0.88 and 0.68, respectively). There was no change in mean scores on the two measures with repeat testing in the 433 women who completed them and test–retest reliability was good (intraclass correlations Brief-H-Neg 0.67 and Brief-H-Pos 0.72).ConclusionsThese findings provide support for the validity of the Brief-H-Neg and Brief-H-Pos. These brief measures are likely to be useful in large population studies assessing hopelessness.Trial registration numberNCT00058032.

PurposeOvarian cancer is a devastating disease and biomarkers for its early diagnosis are urgently required. Serum may be a valuable source of biomarkers that may be revealed by proteomic profiling. Herein, complementary serum protein profiling strategies were employed for discovery of biomarkers that could discriminate cases of malignant and benign ovarian cancer.Experimental designIdentically collected and processed serum samples from 22 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, 45 benign ovarian neoplasms, and 64 healthy volunteers were subjected to immunodepletion and protein equalization coupled to 2D‐DIGE/MS and multidimensional fractionation coupled to SELDI‐TOF profiling with MS/MS for protein identification. Selected candidates were verified by ELISA in samples from malignant (n = 70) and benign (n = 89) cases and combined marker panels tested against serum CA125.ResultsBoth profiling platforms were complementary in identifying biomarker candidates, four of which (A1AT, SLPI, APOA4, VDBP) significantly discriminated malignant from benign cases. However, no combination of markers was as good as CA125 for diagnostic accuracy. SLPI was further tested as an early marker using prediagnosis serum samples. While it rose in cases toward diagnosis, it did not discriminate prediagnosis cases from controls.Conclusions and clinical relevanceThe candidate biomarkers warrant further validation in independent sample sets.