Soil moisture spatial patterns with length scales of 1-100 km influence hydrological, ecological, and agricultural processes, but the footprint or support volume of existing monitoring systems, for example, satellite-based radiometers and sparse in situ monitoring networks, is often either too large or too small to effectively observe these mesoscale patterns. This measurement scale gap hinders our understanding of soil water processes and complicates calibration and validation of hydrologic models and soil moisture satellites. One possible solution is to utilize geostatistical techniques that have proven effective for mapping static patterns in soil properties. The objective of this study was to determine how effectively dynamic, mesoscale soil moisture patterns can be mapped by applying regression kriging to the data from a sparse, large-scale in situ network. The fully automated system developed here uses several data sets: daily soil moisture measurements from the Oklahoma Mesonet, sand content estimates from the Natural Resource Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic Database, and an antecedent precipitation index computed from National Weather Service multisensor precipitation estimates. A multiple linear regression model is fitted daily to the observed data, and the residuals of that model are used in a semivariogram estimation and kriging routine to produce daily statewide maps of soil moisture at 5-, 25-, and 60-cm depths at 800-m resolution. During over 3 years of operation, this mapping system has revealed complex, dynamic, and depth-specific mesoscale patterns, reflecting the shifting influences of both soil texture and precipitation, with a mean absolute error of ≤0.0576 cm 3 /cm 3 across all three depths.
Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. There is a growing need to quantify the effects of rising temperature and changing climates on crop yield and assess impact at a finer scale so that specific adaptation strategies pertinent to that location can be developed. Our work aims to quantify and evaluate the influence of future climate anomalies on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different General Circulation Models (GCMs) and their ensemble. Marksim downscaled daily data of maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation (SRAD) from different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project GCMs (CMIP5 GCMs) were used to simulate the wheat yield in water and nitrogen limiting and non-limiting conditions for the future period of 2040-2060. The potential impact of climate changes on winter wheat production across Oklahoma was investigated. Climate change predictions by the downscaled GCMs suggested increase in air temperature and decrease in total annual rainfall. This will be really critical in a rainfed and semi-arid agro-ecological region of Oklahoma. Predicted average wheat yield during 2040-2060 increased under projected climate change, compared with the baseline years 1980-2014. Our results indicate that downscaled GCMs can be applied for climate projection scenarios for future regional crop yield assessment.
Climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds are highly variable and uncertain across regions. This study estimated the potential impacts of the projected precipitation and temperature based on the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP-5) on hydrology and crop yield of a rural watershed in Oklahoma, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to model the watershed with 43 sub-basins and 15,217 combinations of land use, land cover, soil, and slope. The model was driven by the observed climate in the watershed and was first calibrated and validated against the monthly observed streamflow. Three statistical matrices, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias (PB), were used to gauge the model performance with satisfactory values of R 2 = 0.64, NS = 0.61, and PB = +5% in the calibration period, and R 2 = 0.79, NSE = 0.62, and PB = −15% in the validation period for streamflow. The model parameterization for the yields of cotton (PB = −4.5%), grain sorghum (PB = −27.3%), and winter wheat (PB = −6.0%) resulted in an acceptable model performance. The CMIP-5 ensemble of three General Circulation Models under three Representative Concentration Pathways for the 2016-2040 period indicated an increase in both precipitation (+1.5%) and temperature (+1.8 • C) in the study area. This changed climate resulted in decreased evapotranspiration (−3.7%), increased water yield (23.9%), decreased wheat yield (−5.2%), decreased grain sorghum yield (−9.9%), and increased cotton yield (+54.2%) compared to the historical climate. The projected increase in water yield might provide opportunities for groundwater recharge and additional water to meet future water demand in the region. The projected decrease in winter wheat yield-the major crop in the state-due to climate change, may require attention for ways to mitigate these effects.
COVID-19 has aptly revealed that airborne viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 with the ability to rapidly mutate, combined with high rates of transmission and fatality can cause a deadly world-wide pandemic in a matter of weeks. Apart from vaccines and post-infection treatment options, strategies for preparedness will be vital in responding to the current and future pandemics. Therefore, there is wide interest in approaches that allow predictions of increase in infections (surges) before they occur. We describe here real time genomic surveillance particularly based on mutation analysis, of viral proteins as a methodology for a priori determination of surge in number of infection cases. The full results are available for SARS-CoV-2 at http://pandemics.okstate.edu/covid19/, and are updated daily as new virus sequences become available. This approach is generic and will also be applicable to other pathogens.
COVID19 has aptly revealed that airborne viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 with the ability to rapidly mutate, combined with high rates of transmission and fatality can cause a deadly world-wide pandemic in a matter of weeks.1 Apart from vaccines and post-infection treatment options, strategies for preparedness will be vital in responding to the current and future pandemics. Therefore, there is wide interest in approaches that allow predictions of increase in infections ('surges') before they occur. We describe here real time genomic surveillance particularly based on mutation analysis, of viral proteins as a methodology for a priori determination of surge in number of infection cases. The full results are available for SARS-CoV-2 at http://pandemics.okstate.edu/covid19/, and are updated daily as new virus sequences become available. This approach is generic and will also be applicable to other pathogens.
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