Predicting mass migration is one of the main challenges for policymakers and NGOs working with migrants worldwide. Recently there has been a considerable increase in the use of computational techniques to predict migration flows, and advances have allowed for application of improved algorithms in the field. However, given the rapid pace of technological development facilitating these new predictive tools and methods for migration, it is important to address the extent to which such instruments and techniques engage with and impact migration governance. This study provides an in-depth examination of selected existing predictive tools in the migration field and their impact on the governance of migratory flows. It focuses on a comparative qualitative examination of these tools’ scope, as well as how these characteristics link to their respective underlying migration theory, research question, or objective. It overviews how several organisations have developed tools to predict short- or longer-term migration patterns, or to assess and estimate migration uncertainties. At the same time, it demonstrates how and why these instruments continue to face limitations that in turn affect migration management, especially as it relates to increasing EU institutional and stakeholder efforts to forecast or predict mixed migration. The main predictive migration tools in use today cover different scopes and uses, and as such are equally valid in shaping the requirements for a future, fully comprehensive predictive migration tool. This article provides clarity on the requirements and features for such a tool and draws conclusions as to the risks and opportunities any such tool could present for the future of EU migration governance.
This study analyses the direct impact of the European Union’s restrictive measures against the Russian Federation due to the involvement of the latter on the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine since 2014. It evaluates the development of the sanctions imposed by the EU from 2014 to 2022, exploring the motives and explaining the goals that motivated the Union to apply these measures. Observing their development and prolongation during the years, as well as explaining in a detailed manner the various sanction packages in 2022. The paper portrays the evolution of the EU sanctions regime from the starting point in 2014 as a response to the Crimean crisis, until 2022 with the ongoing military conflict in Luhansk and Donetsk. Furthermore, it evaluates the impact and direct consequences of EU restrictive measures on the Russian Federation, especially their impact on the economy, industry, and international relations. All in all, the investigation produced by the breakdown of the timeline points to pondering if the current tools used by the EU to counter the Russian Federation’s actions actually work. Becoming an analysis of how sanctions are designed, for what type of political structure and with what particular aims. Nevertheless, also conveying how the Russian Federation has been able to minimise some of the effects of these measures by being able to anticipate what sectors can be impacted, creating preventive economic mechanisms, and even expanding their scope of international relations towards different global political spheres of influence.
The global pandemic COVID-19 has strained health care systems and social services and caused an overall negative economic and social impact throughout Europe. Migrants en route to or residing in Europe are especially disadvantaged, not only due to border closures, but also because many were already in precarious situations with limited access to social protection mechanisms or systems in the host country. Those migrants responsible for care work, who are largely women, are especially vulnerable, as these types of jobs during COVID-19 means even more exposure to the virus. This brief outlines the ways in which migrant care work is particularly precarious in COVID-19 conditions. It points to how now, more than ever, it is critical to address the crucial role migrant care workers play in European societies. Finally, it suggests measures to mitigate the risks and vulnerability they face, and how the proposed measures can be beneficial for the EU in terms of recovery from the crisis and rebuilding the affected economies.
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