Abstract. Partitioning soil organic carbon (SOC) into two kinetically different fractions that are stable or active on a century scale is key for an improved monitoring of soil health and for more accurate models of the carbon cycle. However, all existing SOC fractionation methods isolate SOC fractions that are mixtures of centennially stable and active SOC. If the stable SOC fraction cannot be isolated, it has specific chemical and thermal characteristics that are quickly (ca. 1 h per sample) measurable using Rock-Eval® thermal analysis. An alternative would thus be to (1) train a machine-learning model on the Rock-Eval® thermal analysis data for soil samples from long-term experiments for which the size of the centennially stable and active SOC fractions can be estimated and (2) apply this model to the Rock-Eval® data for unknown soils to partition SOC into its centennially stable and active fractions. Here, we significantly extend the validity range of a previously published machine-learning model (Cécillon et al., 2018) that is built upon this strategy. The second version of this model, which we propose to name PARTYSOC, uses six European long-term agricultural sites including a bare fallow treatment and one South American vegetation change (C4 to C3 plants) site as reference sites. The European version of the model (PARTYSOCv2.0EU) predicts the proportion of the centennially stable SOC fraction with a root mean square error of 0.15 (relative root mean square error of 0.27) at six independent validation sites. More specifically, our results show that PARTYSOCv2.0EU reliably partitions SOC kinetic fractions at its northwestern European validation sites on Cambisols and Luvisols, which are the two dominant soil groups in this region. We plan future developments of the PARTYSOC global model using additional reference soils developed under diverse pedoclimates and ecosystems to further expand its domain of application while reducing its prediction error.

Abstract. Partitioning soil organic carbon (SOC) into two kinetically different fractions that are centennially stable or active is key information for an improved monitoring of soil health and for a more accurate modelling of the carbon cycle. However, all existing SOC fractionation methods isolate SOC fractions that are mixtures of centennially stable and active SOC. If the stable SOC fraction cannot be isolated, it has specific chemical and thermal characteristics that are quickly (ca. 1 h per sample) measureable using Rock-Eval® thermal analysis. An alternative would thus be to (1) train a machine-learning model on the Rock-Eval® thermal analysis data of soil samples from long-term experiments where the size of the centennially stable and active SOC fractions can be estimated, and (2) apply this model on the Rock-Eval® data of unknown soils, to partition SOC into its centennially stable and active fractions. Here, we significantly extend the validity range of the machine-learning model published by Cécillon et al. [Biogeosciences, 15, 2835–2849, 2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2835-2018], and built upon this strategy. The second version of this statistical model, which we propose to name PARTYSOC, uses six European long-term agricultural sites including a bare fallow treatment and one South American vegetation change (C4 to C3 plants) site as reference sites. The European version of the model (PARTYSOCv2.0EU) predicts the proportion of the centennially stable SOC fraction with a conservative root-mean-square error of 0.15 (relative root-mean-square error of 0.27) in a wide range of agricultural topsoils from Northwestern Europe. We plan future expansions of the PARTYSOC global model using additional reference soils developed under diverse pedoclimates and ecosystems, and we already recommend the application of PARTYSOCv2.0EU in European agricultural topsoils to provide accurate information on SOC kinetic pools partitioning that may improve the simulations of simple models of SOC dynamics.

Abstract. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are a major source of uncertainty for the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. They are usually simulated by models dividing SOC into conceptual pools with contrasted turnover times. The lack of reliable methods to initialize these models, by correctly distributing soil carbon amongst their kinetic pools, strongly limits the accuracy of their simulations. Here, we demonstrate that PARTYSOC, a machine-learning model based on Rock-Eval® thermal analysis, optimally partitions the active- and stable-SOC pools of AMG, a simple and well-validated SOC dynamics model, accounting for effects of soil management history. Furthermore, we found that initializing the SOC pool sizes of AMG using machine learning strongly improves its accuracy when reproducing the observed SOC dynamics in nine independent French long-term agricultural experiments. Our results indicate that multi-compartmental models of SOC dynamics combined with a robust initialization can simulate observed SOC stock changes with excellent precision. We recommend exploring their potential before a new generation of models of greater complexity becomes operational. The approach proposed here can be easily implemented on soil monitoring networks, paving the way towards precise predictions of SOC stock changes over the next decades.

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