Background Hypertension is the leading driver of cardiovascular disease deaths in Africa. Its prevalence is highest in older populations. Yet, this group has received little attention in many African countries. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO registration: CRD42017056474) to estimate the prevalence of hypertension in older adults living in Africa. Methods We searched grey literature and major electronic databases including PubMed and Embase for population-based studies and published between 1 January 1980 to 28 May 2018 reporting the prevalence of hypertension for adults aged ≥50 years living in Africa. We employed a random effects model to estimate the pooled prevalence across included studies. Findings We screened 10,719 articles and retrieved 103 full-text articles to evaluate for inclusion in the review. Thirty-four unique studies providing 37 data points on 43,025 individuals in 15 African countries were analyzed. The prevalence of hypertension ranged from 22.3% to 90.0% from the individual studies while the overall pooled prevalence was 57.0% (95% CI 52%-61%). The prevalence was not statistically significantly different by sex, residence, or African sub-region. In individual studies, older age and overweight/obesity were independently associated with hypertension. Twenty-nine (78%) data points were deemed to be of low- or moderate-risk of bias. Eliminating high-risk bias studies made little difference to the pooled estimate of hypertension. Sensitivity analyses, omitting one study at a time, identified three studies with significant but relatively small impact on the pooled estimate. We observed substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 98.9%) across the studies which was further explored by meta-regression analyses. Overall, the GRADE assessment suggested moderate quality evidence in the results. Conclusion The persistent high prevalence of hypertension among older adults in Africa, even in rural populations warrants more attention to the cardiovascular health of this group by public health authorities.

Despite an emerging literature, there is still sparse and mixed evidence on the wider societal benefits of Minimum Wage policies, including their effects on mental health. Furthermore, causal evidence on the relationship between earnings and mental health is limited. We focus on low-wage earners, who are at higher risk of psychological distress, and exploit the quasi-experiment provided by the introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) to identify the causal impact of wage increases on mental health. We employ difference-in-differences models and find that the introduction of the UK NMW had no effect on mental health. Our estimates do not appear to support earlier findings which indicate that minimum wages affect mental health of low-wage earners. A series of robustness checks accounting for measurement error, as well as treatment and control group composition, confirm our main results. Overall, our findings suggest that policies aimed at improving the mental health of low-wage earners should either consider the non-wage characteristics of employment or potentially larger wage increases.

This paper presents an overview of microsimulation as a method to evaluate health and health care policies and interventions. After presenting a brief survey of microsimulation models and applications we describe the main features of the approach and how these are implemented in practice. We pay particular attention to the innovative features of dynamic microsimulation as a method of ex-ante policy evaluation. The final section presents a critical overview of the most recent health-dedicated dynamic microsimulation models including POHEM and FEM, two of the most comprehensive dynamic microsimulation models for health. We describe how these models are used to simulate lifecycle health trajectories and associated health care costs under competing policy scenarios to illustrate the power of microsimulation as a valid and relevant tool for policy evaluation.

The literature on the effects of public smoking bans on smoking behaviour presents conflicting results and there is limited evidence on their impact on active smoking. This paper evaluates the impact of smoking bans on active smoking using data from the British Household Panel Survey and exploiting the policy experiment provided by the differential timing of the introduction of the bans in Scotland and England. We assess the short-term impact of the smoking bans by employing a series of flexible difference-in-differences fixed effects panel data models. We find that the introduction of the public smoking bans in England and Scotland had limited short-run effects on both smoking prevalence and the total level of smoking. Although we identify significant differences in trends in smoking consumption across the survey period by population sub-groups, we find insufficient evidence to conclude that these were affected by the introduction of the smoking bans. These results challenge those found in the public health literature but are in line with the most recent strand of economic literature indicating that there is no firm evidence on the effects of smoking bans on smoking.

Background An estimated 55% of older adults in Africa have systemic hypertension, a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and dementia in the region. The risk factors associated with hypertension in this population group in Africa have not been systematically evaluated. We, therefore, undertook a systematic review to identify these risk factors. Methods We searched for population-based studies of adults aged ≥50 years living in Africa and reporting an estimate of hypertension and associated risk factors. We included articles published in any language between January 1980 and May 2018 using a comprehensive search strategy. We extracted data including the sample characteristics, prevalence of hypertension and risk factors with their effect sizes. Results From an initial 10,719 records, we retained 63 eligible full text articles for review out of which we analyzed 23 studies made up of 19 primary and four multiple publications which had data on risk factors from bivariate or multivariable analysis. The primary studies, published from 2010 to 2018, involved a total of 30,500 participants in 12 different countries with mean ages ranging from 62.7 ± 9 years to 76.9 ± 8.4 years. Through narrative synthesis, we found consistent determinants of hypertension (overweight/obesity and history of stroke), less consistent but frequent determinants (including older age group, female sex and urban residence), inconsistent determinants (including education, wealth index, alcohol intake and physical activity) and nonsignificant covariates (marital status and having health insurance). Overall, the highest adjusted odds ratios were those associated with obesity and history of stroke. Conclusion The key determinants of systemic hypertension in older adults in Africa are older age group, overweight/obesity, history of stroke and female sex. Health programmes should promote weight reduction throughout the life course, including during the middle and older age of African adults. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12872-019-1147-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.