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A recent U.S. Department of Energy study estimated that more than one billion tons of biofuel feedstock could be produced by 2030 in the United States from increased corn yield, and changes in agricultural and forest residue management and land uses. To understand the implications of such increased production on water resources and stream quality at regional and local scales, we have applied a watershed model for the Upper Mississippi River Basin, where most of the current and future crop/residue-based biofuel production is expected. The model simulates changes in water quality (soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings in streams) and resources (soil-water content, evapotranspiration, and runoff) under projected biofuel production versus the 2006 baseline year and a business-as-usual scenario. The basin average results suggest that the projected feedstock production could change the rate of evapotranspiration in the UMRB by approximately +2%, soil-water content by about -2%, and discharge to streams by -5% from the baseline scenario. However, unlike the impacts on regional water availability, the projected feedstock production has a mixed effect on water quality, resulting in 12% and 45% increases in annual suspended sediment and total phosphorus loadings, respectively, but a 3% decrease in total nitrogen loading. These differences in water quantity and quality are statistically significant (p < 0.05). The basin responses are further analyzed at monthly time steps and finer spatial scales to evaluate underlying physical processes, which would be essential for future optimization of environmentally sustainable biofuel productions.

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Data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and outputs of the CLM4.5 model were used to estimate recharge and depletion rates for large aquifers, investigate the connectivity of an aquifer's subbasins, and identify barriers and preferred pathways for groundwater flow within an aquifer system. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System and its subbasins (Dakhla, Northern Sudan Platform, and Kufra) in northeast Africa were used for demonstration purposes, and findings were tested and verified against geological, geophysical, remote sensing, geochronologic, and geochemical data. There are four major findings. (1) The average annual precipitation data over recharge areas in the southern Kufra section and the Northern Sudan Platform subbasin were estimated at 54.8 km 3 , and 32.8 km 3 , respectively, and knowing the annual extraction rates over these two areas (~0.40 ± 0.20 km 3 ), recharge rates were estimated at 0.78 ± 0.49 km 3 /yr and 1.44 ± 0.42 km 3 /yr, respectively. (2) GRACEderived groundwater depletion rates over the Dakhla subbasin and the Northern Kufra section were estimated at 4.44 ± 0.42 km 3 /yr and 0.48 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr, respectively. (3) The observed depletion in the southern parts of the Dakhla subbasin is apparently caused by the presence of the east-west-trending Uweinat-Aswan basement uplift, which impedes the south-to-north groundwater flow and hence reduces replenishment from recharge areas in the south. (4) A major northeast-southwest-trending shear zone (Pelusium shear system) is apparently providing a preferred groundwater flow pathway from the Kufra to the Dakhla subbasin. Our inte-grated approach provides a replicable and cost-effective model for better understanding of the hydrogeologic setting of large aquifers worldwide and for optimum management of these groundwater resources.

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