This article looks at the European Neighbourhood Policy as an attempt by the EU to transform its external borders from areas of demarcation and division to areas of exchange and interaction. It outlines five possible scenarios for the evolution of the EU, assessing their implications for the ENP and the reconceptualization of the Union’s borders. First, a paralysed and more internally fragmented Union if the current differences on both enlargement and constitutional reform prove insurmountable. Second, a larger yet unreformed Union resulting in institutional shortcomings. Third, a Union focused on its internal reform, with future enlargement plans would be slowed down or put on ice. Fourth, the introduction of limited reforms, although a far cry from those envisaged by the Constitutional Treaty. And fifth, a reformed and externally more dynamic Union with a quickly ratified Consitutional Treaty.
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