Background: Women diagnosed with breast cancer, their doctors, and their families, would find a valid estimate of her prognosis helpful in planning treatment and support. Assessing prognosis is complex as many factors influence it. Several predictive models have been produced, but none has been developed or tested on patients in New Zealand (NZ). Aim: We aimed to develop and validate a NZ predictive model (NZPM) for breast cancer, and compare its performance to a widely used UK-developed model, the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). Methods: We developed a model to predict 10-year breast cancer-specific survival, using data collected prospectively in the largest population-based breast cancer registry in NZ (Auckland, 9182 patients), and assessed its performance in this data set (internal validation) and in an independent NZ population-based series of 2625 patients in Waikato (external validation). The data included all women with primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed from 1 June 2000 to 30 June 2014, with follow-up to death or to 31 December 2014. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression to assess predictors and to estimate the probability of breast cancer mortality within 10 years, and therefore 10-year survival, for each patient. We assessed observed survival by the Kaplan-Meier method. We assessed discrimination by the C-statistic, and calibration by comparing predicted and observed survival rates for patients in 10 groups ordered by predicted 10-year survival. We compared this NZPM with the NPI in the validation data set. Results: The final NZPM used continuous variables of age, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes, and categorical variables of ethnicity, tumor stage, tumor grade, ER and PR receptors, HER2 status, and histologic type of tumor. Discrimination was good: C-statistics were 0.84 for internal validity and 0.83 for independent external validity. For calibration, for both internal and external validity, the predicted 10-year survival probabilities in 10 groups of patients, ordered by predicted survival, were all within the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the observed Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities. The NZPM showed good discrimination even within the prognostic groups defined by the NPI. Conclusion: These results for the NZPM show good internal and external validity, transportability, potential clinical value, and its clear superiority over the NPI. Further research will assess other potential predictors, other outcomes, performance in specific subgroups of patients, and compare the NZPM to other models, which have been developed in other countries and have not yet been tested in NZ.
Background: Training courses in integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) have been conducted for health workers for nearly one and half decades in Afghanistan. The objective of the training courses is to improve quality of care in terms of health workers communication skills and clinical performance when they provide health services for under-5 children in public healthcare facilities. This paper presents our findings on the effects of IMCI training courses on quality of care in public primary healthcare facilities in Afghanistan. Methods: We used a cross-sectional post-intervention design with regression-adjusted difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis, and included 2 groups of health workers (treatment and control). The treatment group were those who have received training in IMCI recently (in the last 12 months), and the control group were those who have never received training in IMCI. The assessment method was direct observation of health workers during patient-provider interaction. We used data, collected over a period of 3 years (2015–2017) from primary healthcare facilities, and investigated training effects on quality of care. The outcome variables were 4 indices of quality care related to history taking, information sharing, counseling/medical advice, and physical examination. Each index was formed as a composite score, composed of several inter-related tasks of quality of care carried out by health workers during patient-provider interaction for under-5 children. Results: Data were collected from 733 primary healthcare facilities with 5818 patients. Quality of care was assessed at the level of patient-provider interaction. Findings from the regression-adjusted DiD multivariate analysis showed significant effects of IMCI training on 2 indices of quality care in 2016, and on 4 indices of quality care in 2017. In 2016 two indices of quality care showed improvement. There was an increase of 8.1% in counseling/medical advice index, and 8.7% in physical examination index. In 2017, there was an increase of 5.7% in history taking index, 8.0% in information sharing index, 10.9% in counseling/medical advice index, and 17.2% in physical examination index. Conclusion: Conducting regular IMCI training courses for health workers can improve quality of care for under-5 children in primary healthcare facilities in Afghanistan. Findings from our study have the potential to influence policy and strategic decisions on IMCI programs in developing countries.
This study developed a systems-based approach (called FoodBack) to empower citizens and change agents to create healthier community food places. Formative evaluations were held with citizens and change agents in six diverse New Zealand communities, supplemented by semi-structured interviews with 85 change agents in Auckland and Hamilton in 2015-2016. The emerging system was additionally reviewed by public health experts from diverse organizations. A food environments feedback system was constructed to crowdsource key indicators of the healthiness of diverse community food places (i.e. schools, hospitals, supermarkets, fast food outlets, sport centers) and outdoor spaces (i.e. around schools), comments/pictures about barriers and facilitators to healthy eating and exemplar stories on improving the healthiness of food environments. All the information collected is centrally processed and translated into 'short' (immediate) and 'long' (after analyses) feedback loops to stimulate actions to create healthier food places. FoodBack, as a comprehensive food environment feedback system (with evidence databases and feedback and recognition processes), has the potential to increase food sovereignty, and generate a sustainable, fine-grained database of food environments for real-time food policy research.
Background Obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) account for the largest proportion of disease burden worldwide, and an unhealthy food environment is a key driver. Food retailers play an important role in food environments through the availability and purchases of healthy food products at various stores. Objectives To assess whether the healthiness of food and non-alcoholic drink product purchases vary according to retail store type. Methods We undertook a cross-sectional analysis of Nielsen New Zealand Homescan® panel data, which is a nationally representative sample of 2500 households in terms of certain key household demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Panel members were asked to record all food and beverage products that were purchased and brought back to the home between October 2018 and October 2019. Household food and non-alcoholic drink purchases were linked with two food composition databases (Nutritrack, a New Zealand packaged food composition database, and the FOODfiles New Zealand Food Composition Database) to extract data on the nutrient profile of products purchased. We developed a store classification tool, and classified stores as supermarkets, grocery stores, convenience stores, fruit and vegetable stores, meat and fish stores, or bakeries. We estimated the Health Star Rating (HSR) for all products and defined a product with HSR ≥ 3.5 as ‘healthy’. We computed estimated mean HSR and conducted multivariate regression analyses. Results In total, 3,940,458 product purchases were included in the analyses, consisting of 20,491 unique products purchased at different stores over the one-year period by 1800 panellist households. Supermarket products made up the majority of household food and drink purchases (3,545,141 of 3,940,458; 90%). Overall, the estimated mean HSR was 3.5 stars. In comparison to the reference group of supermarkets, the odds ratio for healthy products purchased at fruit and vegetable stores was 4.62, at grocery stores it was 2.36, and at meat and fish stores it was 1.99. In contrast, the odds ratios from convenience stores and bakeries were 0.58 and 0.03. Except for convenience stores, these differences were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Discussion We found significant differences in household purchases of healthy food and beverages according to food retail store type, with healthier food much more likely to be purchased from fruit and vegetable stores, meat and fish stores and grocery stores, and much less likely to be purchased from bakeries and convenience stores as compared with supermarkets. Conclusion Policies to improve healthy food retailing should consider all retail store types and focus particularly on increasing the availability of healthy food options at convenience stores and bakeries. Given that supermarkets are the source of most household food purchases (both healthy and ...
Background Little is known whether women’s knowledge of perceived severity of illness and sociodemographic characteristics of women influence healthcare seeking behavior for maternal health services in Afghanistan. The aim of this study was to address this knowledge gap. Methods Data were used from the Afghanistan Health Survey 2018. Women’s knowledge in terms of danger signs or symptoms during pregnancy was assessed. The signs or symptoms were bleeding, swelling of the body, headache, fever, or any other danger sign or symptom (e.g., high blood pressure). A categorical variable of knowledge score was created. The outcome variables were defined as ≥ 4 ANC vs. 0–3 ANC; ≥ 4 PNC vs. 0–3 PNC visits; institutional vs. non-institutional deliveries. A multivariable generalized linear model (GLM) was used. Results Data were used from 9,190 ever-married women, aged 13–49 years, who gave birth in the past two years. It was found that 56%, 22% and 2% of women sought healthcare for institutional delivery, ≥ 4 ANC, ≥ 4 PNC visits, respectively, and that women’s knowledge is a strong predictor of healthcare seeking [odds ratio (OR)1.77(1.54–2.05), 2.28(1.99–2.61), and 2.78 (2.34–3.32) on knowledge of 1, 2, and 3–5 signs or symptoms, respectively, in women with ≥ 4 ANC visits when compared with women who knew none of the signs or symptoms. In women with ≥ 4 PNC visits, it was 1.80(1.12–2.90), 2.22(1.42–3.48), and 3.33(2.00–5.54), respectively. In women with institutional deliveries, it was 1.49(1.32–1.68), 2.02(1.78–2.28), and 2.34(1.95–2.79), respectively. Other strong predictors were women’s education level, multiparity, residential areas (urban vs. rural), socioeconomic status, access to mass media (radio, TV, the internet), access of women to health workers for birth, and decision-making for women where to deliver. However, age of women was not a strong predictor. Conclusion Our findings suggest that pregnant women’s healthcare seeking behaviour is influenced by women’s knowledge of danger signs and symptoms during pregnancy, women’s education, socioeconomic status, access to media, husband’s, in-laws’ and relatives’ decisions, residential area, multiparity, and access to health workers. The findings have implications for promoting safe motherhood and childbirth practices through improving women’s knowledge, education, and social status.
Purpose Initiating antenatal care (ANC) visits by pregnant women during first trimester, known as timely initiation of ANC visits, is crucial for wellbeing of mothers and their unborn babies. We examined whether sociodemographic characteristics of pregnant women predict timely initiation of ANC visits. Patients and Methods Data collected for the Afghanistan Health Survey 2018 (AHS 2018) were analyzed. A binary outcome variable was created as women with ANC visits in 0–3 months (first trimester) vs women with ANC visits in ≥4 months of pregnancy. A multivariable generalized linear model was employed. Results A total of 6862 ever-married women, aged 14–49 years, with a history of pregnancy, including current pregnancy, were included. The prevalence of timely initiation of ANC visits was 55.8%. The likelihood (OR = odds ratio) of timely initiation of ANC visits was higher in women aged 30–39 years [OR 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00–1.25)], in women who could read and write [OR 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99–1.21)], in women who used public primary care facilities [OR 1.14 (95% CI: 1.01–1.28)], in women who received consultation on ANC from a doctor or midwife [OR 1.22 (95% CI: 0.72–2.08), OR 1.13 (95% CI: 0.67–1.92)] respectively, in women at fourth and highest quintiles of wealth status [OR 1.24 (95% CI: 1.04–1.48), OR 1.14 (95% CI: 0.92–1.40)] respectively, in women who intended to become pregnant [OR 1.56 (95% CI: 1.35–1.81)], in women who used the internet [OR 1.53 (95% CI: 1.13–2.06)], and in women who listened to radio [OR 1.16 (95% CI: 1.03–1.30)]. However, the likelihood was lower in women who had given birth at least twice [OR 0.67 (95% CI: 0.50–0.89)], and in women who lived in rural areas [OR 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75–1.00)]. Conclusion To promote timely initiation of ANC visits, healthcare interventions to increase availability of midwives and doctors, and improve accessibility to primary care clinics, especially in rural areas, need to be implemented.
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