BackgroundUpcoming vaccination efforts against typhoid fever require an assessment of the baseline burden of disease in countries at risk. There are no typhoid incidence data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), so model-based estimates offer insights for decision-makers in the absence of readily available data.MethodsWe developed a mixed-effects model fit to data from 32 population-based studies of typhoid incidence in 22 locations in 14 countries. We tested the contribution of economic and environmental indices for predicting typhoid incidence using a stochastic search variable selection algorithm. We performed out-of-sample validation to assess the predictive performance of the model.ResultsWe estimated that 17.8 million cases of typhoid fever occur each year in LMICs (95% credible interval: 6.9–48.4 million). Central Africa was predicted to experience the highest incidence of typhoid, followed by select countries in Central, South, and Southeast Asia. Incidence typically peaked in the 2–4 year old age group. Models incorporating widely available economic and environmental indicators were found to describe incidence better than null models.ConclusionsRecent estimates of typhoid burden may under-estimate the number of cases and magnitude of uncertainty in typhoid incidence. Our analysis permits prediction of overall as well as age-specific incidence of typhoid fever in LMICs, and incorporates uncertainty around the model structure and estimates of the predictors. Future studies are needed to further validate and refine model predictions and better understand year-to-year variation in cases.

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The “synthetic controls” (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches.

Background: Unplanned hospital readmissions are a major source of morbidity among dialysis patients, in whom the risk of hospital readmission is exceptionally high. The contribution of dialysis facility staffing to hospital readmission has been largely overlooked. Methods: Using annual data of dialysis patients from the United States Renal Data System from 2010 to 2013, we assessed dialysis facilities with a significantly worse (SW) and facilities with a nonsignificant (NS) standardized readmission ratio (SRR). SRR estimates were risk adjusted for patient factors, past year comorbidities, and index hospitalization characteristics. Facility staffing variables were compared between 2 exposure groups: facilities with SW and NS SRRs. Four measures of staffing, including patient-to-staffing ratio, were compared between SW and matched NS facilities. Results: About 136,000–148,000 dialysis patients with 269,000–319,000 index hospital discharges were used to identify facilities with SW and facilities with NS SRR annually. Approximately 3–4% of facilities were identified as having SW SRR among > 5,000 facilities annually. The percent of nurses-to-total staff was significantly lower in 2010 for SW facilities than in matched NS facilities (42.5 vs. 45.6%, p = 0.012), but this disparity was attenuated by 2013 (44.8 vs. 44.7%, p = 0.949). There was a higher patient-to-nurse ratio for SW facilities than for NS facilities (mean 16.4 vs. 15.2, p = 0.038) in 2010 as well, and the disparity was reduced by 2013. The trends were similar for patient-to-total staff and patient-to-registered nurse, but not statistically significant. Conclusions: This study found that dialysis facilities with SW 30-day readmission rates had lower proportions of nurses-to-total staff and higher patient-to-nurse ratios, but this disparity improved in recent years. Additional research is warranted focusing on how evidence-based staffing at dialysis facilities can contribute to reduction of hospital readmission, and this knowledge is needed to inform clinical practice guidelines and policy decisions regarding optimal dialysis patient staffing.

Objective The natural learning experience from infancy to emerging adulthood, when considerable cognitive and functional growth is observed, mandates learning multiple real-world skills simultaneously. The present studies investigated whether learning multiple real-world skills simultaneously is possible in older adults and also whether it improves both their cognitive abilities (working memory, episodic memory, and cognitive control) and functional independence. Method Over two studies (15 and 27 participants), older adults learned at least three new skills (e.g., Spanish, drawing, music composition) simultaneously for 3 months. Participants completed cognitive and functional assessments before, during, and after the intervention in both studies. Participants were recruited sequentially for an intervention or no-contact control group in Study 1, and Study 2 included only an intervention group, who also completed assessments 4–6 weeks prior to the start of the intervention (i.e., they served as their own control group). Results Results from both studies show that simultaneously learning multiple skills is feasible and potentially beneficial for healthy older adults. Learning multiple skills simultaneously increased cognitive abilities in older adults by midpoint of the intervention, to levels similar to performance in a separate sample of middle-aged adults, 30 years younger. Discussion Our findings demonstrate the feasibility and potential of conducting a real-world skill-learning intervention involving learning three novel skills with older adults. Our multiskill intervention may provide broad cognitive gains, akin to the benefits experienced earlier in the life span.