Weather radar retrieval, in terms of detection, estimation, and sensitivity, of volcanic ash plumes is dependent not only on the radar system specifications but also on the range and ash cloud distribution. The minimum detectable signal can be increased, for a given radar and ash plume scenario, by decreasing the observation range and increasing the operational frequency and also by exploiting possible polarimetric capabilities. For short- range observations in proximity of the volcano vent, a compact portable system with relatively low power transmitter may be evaluated as a suitable compromise between observational and technological requirements. This paper, starting from the results of a previous study and from the aforementioned issues, is aimed at quantitatively assessing the optimal choices for a portable X-band system with a dual-polarization capability for real-time ash cloud remote sensing. The physical-electromagnetic model of ash particle distributions is systematically reviewed and extended to include nonspherical particle shapes, vesicular composition, silicate content, and orientation phenomena. The radar backscattering response at X-band is simulated and analyzed in terms of self-consistent polarimetric signatures for ash classification purposes and correlation with ash concentration for quantitative retrieval aims. An X-band radar system sensitivity analysis to ash concentration, as a function of radar specifications, range, and ash category, is carried out in trying to assess the expected system performances and limitations
Ash clouds due to volcanic eruptions can be detected in near-real time, quantitatively retrieved, and microphysically characterized by using ground-based microwave weather radars and their high-resolution spatial-temporal coverage.
Modern polarimetric weather radars typically provide reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential phase shift, which are used in algorithms to estimate the parameters of the rain drop size distribution (DSD), the mean drop shape, and rainfall rate. A new method is presented to minimize the parameterization error using the Rayleigh scattering limit relations multiplied with a rational polynomial function of reflectivity-weighted raindrop diameter to approximate the Mie character of scattering. A statistical relation between the shape parameter of the DSD with the median volume diameter of raindrops is derived by exploiting long-term disdrometer observations. On the basis of this relation, new optimal estimators of rain microphysical parameters and rainfall rate are developed for a wide range of rain DSDs and air temperatures using X-band scattering simulations of polarimetric radar observables. Parameterizations of radar specific path attenuation and backscattering phase shift are also developed, which do not depend on this relation. The methodology can, in principle, be applied to other weather radar frequencies. A numerical sensitivity analysis shows that calibration bias and measurement noise in radar measurements are critical factors for the total error in parameters estimation, despite the low parameterization error (less than 5%). However, for the usual errors of radar calibration and measurement noise (of the order of 1 dB, 0.2 dB, and 0.3 deg km(-1) for reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential propagation phase shift, respectively), the new parameterizations provide a reliable estimation of rain parameters (typically less than 20% error)
Abstract. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of the assimilation of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data in a mesoscale model for the forecast of a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Italy in the urban area of Rome from 19 to 22 May 2008. For this purpose, radar reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar are assimilated into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.4.1. The general goal is to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF): with this aim, several experiments are performed using the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique. Moreover, sensitivity tests to outer loops are performed to include non-linearity in the observation operators.In order to identify the best initial conditions (ICs), statistical indicators such as forecast accuracy, frequency bias, false alarm rate and equitable threat score for the accumulated precipitation are used.The results show that the assimilation of DWR data has a large impact on both the position of convective cells and on the rainfall forecast of the analyzed event. A positive impact is also found if they are ingested together with conventional observations. Sensitivity to the use of two or three outer loops is also found if DWR data are assimilated together with conventional data.
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