This paper develops and estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Hong Kong economy. The model features short-run price rigidities generated by monopolistic competition and staggered reoptimization. We devote special attention to asset prices and wealth effects, which we believe to be important. For this reason we adopt a perpetual-youth approach. Model parameters and unobserved components are estimated with a Bayesian maximum likelihood procedure, conditional on prior information concerning the values of parameters. The estimations identify substantial wealth effects and indicate that the nominal interest rate responds to unexpected movements in stock prices. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
The problems with a single currency in Europe are neither temporary nor curable. Any persistent defence of the euro will result in a long‐lasting recession and high unemployment in countries using fiscal austerity to pursue ‘internal devaluation’. It may lead to a revival of populist and nationalist movements, political collapse and disorderly eurozone break‐up. This article argues for a controlled segmentation of the eurozone via the exit of the most competitive countries and an agreement on a new European currency coordination system.
This paper develops and estimates an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Hong Kong economy. The model features short-run price rigidities generated by monopolistic competition and staggered reoptimisation. The model is enhanced with wealth effects due to stock price dynamics, which we believe to be important. For this reason we adopt a perpetual youth approach. Model parameters and unobserved components are estimated with a Bayesian maximum likelihood procedure, conditional on prior information concerning the values of parameters.
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