Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers’ capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.
Background
Community survey data suggest high prevalence of substance use disorders among currently homeless individuals. There is less data regarding illicit drug and alcohol use problems of homeless-experienced persons engaged in primary care. They may have less severe use and require different care responses from primary care teams.
Methods
We surveyed currently and formerly homeless, i.e., homeless-experienced, persons engaged in primary care at 5 federally-funded programs in the U.S., administering the World Health Organization (WHO) Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST). We used the ASSIST definitions of lower, moderate, and high risk to assess a spectrum of lifetime and recent substance use, from any use to likely dependence, and to identify sociodemographic and health status characteristics associated with severity of use.
Results
Almost one-half of the sample (n = 601) had recently (within the past 3 months) used alcohol, and one-third had recently used an illicit drug. The most commonly used illicit drugs in the past 3 months were cannabis (19%), cocaine (16%), and opioids (7.5%). Over one-half (59%) of respondents had ASSIST-defined moderate or high risk substance use. A significant proportion (31%) of those identified as at moderate risk had no recent substance use, but did report past problematic use. Ten percent of the lower risk group had past problematic use of alcohol. Severity of use was associated with worse health status, but not with housing status or type of homelessness experienced.
Conclusions
Less severe (moderate risk) use and past problematic use, potentially indicative of remitted substance use disorders, were more common than high risk use in this primary care, homeless-experienced sample. Our findings highlight the urgency of identifying effective ways to reduce risky substance use and prevent relapse in homeless-experienced persons.
Significance
The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.
Background
Homeless patients face unique challenges in obtaining primary care responsive to their needs and context. Patient experience questionnaires could permit assessment of patient-centered medical homes for this population, but standard instruments may not reflect homeless patients' priorities and concerns.
Objectives
This report describes (a) the content and psychometric properties of a new primary care questionnaire for homeless patients and (b) the methods utilized in its development.
Methods
Starting with quality-related constructs from the Institute of Medicine, we identified relevant themes by interviewing homeless patients and experts in their care. A multidisciplinary team drafted a preliminary set of 78 items. This was administered to homeless-experienced clients (n=563) across 3 VA facilities and 1 non-VA Health Care for the Homeless Program. Using Item Response Theory, we examined Test Information Function curves to eliminate less informative items and devise plausibly distinct subscales.
Results
The resulting 33-item instrument (Primary Care Quality-Homeless, PCQ-H) has four subscales: Patient-Clinician Relationship (15 items), Cooperation among Clinicians (3 items), Access/Coordination (11 items) and Homeless-Specific Needs (4 items). Evidence for divergent and convergent validity is provided. Test Information Function (TIF) graphs showed adequate informational value to permit inferences about groups for 3 subscales (Relationship, Cooperation and Access/Coordination). The 3-item Cooperation subscale had lower informational value (TIF<5) but had good internal consistency (alpha=0.75) and patients frequently reported problems in this aspect of care.
Conclusions
Systematic application of qualitative and quantitative methods supported the development of a brief patient-reported questionnaire focused on the primary care of homeless patients and offers guidance for future population-specific instrument development.
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