Background and purpose — As previous studies indicate time trends in pediatric fracture incidence, we followed the incidence in a Swedish city between 1950 and 2016. Patients and methods — Malmö city, Sweden had 322,574 inhabitants in 2015. We used diagnosis registry, charts, and radiographs of the only city hospital to classify fractures in individuals < 16 years in 2014–2016, and compared these with data from 1950–2006. We used joinpoint regression to analyze time trends and present results as mean annual percentage changes (APC). Differences between periods are described as incident rate ratios (IRR). To describe uncertainty, 95% confidence intervals (CI) are used. Results — During 2014–2016 the pediatric fracture incidence was 1,786 per 10 5 person-years (boys 2,135 and girls 1,423). From 1950 onwards age-adjusted fracture incidence increased until 1979 in both boys (APC +1.5%, CI 1.2–1.8) and girls (APC +1.6%, CI 0.8–2.5). The incidence remained stable from 1979 to 2016 (APC in boys 0.0%, CI –0.3 to 0.3 and in girls –0.2%, CI –1.1 to 0.7). Age-adjusted incidence 2014–2016 was higher than 2005–2006 in girls (IRR 1.1, CI 1.03–1.3), but not in boys (IRR 1.0, CI 0.9–1.1). Interpretation — Fracture incidence was in girls higher in 2014–2016 than in 2005–2006. However, only with more than 2 measuring points are meaningful trend analyses possible. When we analyzed the period 1950–2016 with 17 measuring points and joinpoint regression, we found that fracture incidence increased in both sexes until 1979 but has thereafter been stable.
Screen time and physical inactivity have increased among children. As physical activity is a determinant of bone mass, there is a concern that children today have lower bone mass than earlier. If this is true, fractures may become more common in the future. In 2017-2018, we used single-photon absorptiometry (SPA) to measure distal forearm bone mineral density (BMD; mg/cm 2 ) in a normative cohort of 238 boys and 204 girls aged 7 to 15 years. We compared these results to BMD in a normative cohort collected in 1979-1981 (55 boys and 61 girls aged 7 to 15 years) measured by the same scanner. To investigate difference between the two cohorts, we used multiple linear regression with age, sex, and cohort as predictors. Predicted bone density at age 16 years was estimated through the slope values. The bone density-age slope was flatter in the cohort measured in 2017-2018 than in the cohort measured 1979-1981 (À5.6 mg/cm 2 /yr [95% confidence interval À9.6 to À1.5]). Predicted bone density was at age 16 years in 2017-2018 in boys was 10% lower (À0.9 SD) and in girls 11% lower (À1.1 SD) than in their counterparts measured in 1979-1981. We found indications that children nowadays develop lower bone mass than four decades ago, giving concern that they may have a higher risk of osteoporosis and fragility fractures as they grow old.
Background Distal forearm fracture is the most common pediatric fracture. As studies have indicated time trends in fracture incidence, we wanted to update the epidemiology and estimate time trends between 1950 and 2016 in Malmö, Sweden. Methods The city of Malmö, Sweden, had 318,107 inhabitants (58,585 of the population was aged <16 years) in 2014 and one hospital. We, therefore, used the hospital diagnosis registry and hospital medical records to identify and classify distal forearm fractures 2014 to 2016 in children aged 0 to 15 years. For long-term trend calculations, we also included published data from 1950 to 2006 (resulting in 17 evaluated years) and used joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent changes (APC). To describe differences in incidence between two periods, we calculated incident rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to describe uncertainty. Results Childhood distal forearm fracture incidence in 2014 to 2016 was 546/100,000 person-years (660 in boys and 427 in girls). The age-adjusted incidence in 2014 to 2016 and in 2005 to 2006 was similar (boys IRR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.9–1.2 and girls IRR 1.1, 95% CI: 0.9–1.3). Time-trend analyses from 1950 to 2016 revealed increasing age-adjusted incidence in both boys (APC +0.9%, 95% CI: 0.7–1.2) and girls (APC +0.6%, 95% CI: 0.3–0.9). Conclusion Distal forearm fracture incidence was similar in 2014 to 2016 and in 2005 to 2006. Age-adjusted incidence had increased in both sexes from 1950 to 2016. Level of Evidence This is a Level III b study.
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