Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause widespread decline of agricultural yield, reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency, as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyze the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 (reported as δ13C) to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the water-use efficiency across areas of millions of km2 and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in water-use efficiency along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia, and the United States in 2001-2011. The impact of those droughts on water-use efficiency and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought induced carbon-climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.

We analysed gross primary productivity (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER) and the resulting net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by the terrestrial biosphere during the summer of 2018 through observed changes across the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network, through biosphere and inverse modelling, and through remote sensing. Highly correlated yet independently-derived reductions in productivity from sun-induced fluorescence, vegetative near-infrared reflectance, and GPP simulated by the Simple Biosphere model version 4 (SiB4) suggest a 130–340 TgC GPP reduction in July–August–September (JAS) of 2018. This occurs over an area of 1.6 × 10 6 km 2 with anomalously low precipitation in northwestern and central Europe. In this drought-affected area, reduced GPP, TER, NEE and soil moisture at ICOS ecosystem sites are reproduced satisfactorily by the SiB4 model. We found that, in contrast to the preceding 5 years, low soil moisture is the main stress factor across the affected area. SiB4’s NEE reduction by 57 TgC for JAS coincides with anomalously high atmospheric CO 2 observations in 2018, and this is closely matched by the NEE anomaly derived by CarbonTracker Europe (52 to 83 TgC). Increased NEE during the spring (May–June) of 2018 (SiB4 −52 TgC; CTE −46 to −55 TgC) largely offset this loss, as ecosystems took advantage of favourable growth conditions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.

The tropical carbon balance dominates year-to-year variations in the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration and fires. Because of its high correlation with gross primary productivity (GPP), observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) are of great interest. We developed a new remotely sensed SIF product with improved signal-to-noise in the tropics, and use it here to quantify the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño Amazon drought. We find that SIF was strongly suppressed over areas with anomalously high temperatures and decreased levels of water in the soil. SIF went below its climatological range starting from the end of the 2015 dry season (October) and returned to normal levels by February 2016 when atmospheric conditions returned to normal, but well before the end of anomalously low precipitation that persisted through June 2016. Impacts were not uniform across the Amazon basin, with the eastern part experiencing much larger (10–15%) SIF reductions than the western part of the basin (2–5%). We estimate the integrated loss of GPP relative to eight previous years to be 0.34–0.48 PgC in the three-month period October–November–December 2015.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

The triple oxygen isotope signature Δ17O in atmospheric CO2, also known as its “17O excess,” has been proposed as a tracer for gross primary production (the gross uptake of CO2 by vegetation through photosynthesis). We present the first global 3‐D model simulations for Δ17O in atmospheric CO2 together with a detailed model description and sensitivity analyses. In our 3‐D model framework we include the stratospheric source of Δ17O in CO2 and the surface sinks from vegetation, soils, ocean, biomass burning, and fossil fuel combustion. The effect of oxidation of atmospheric CO on Δ17O in CO2 is also included in our model. We estimate that the global mean Δ17O (defined as Δ17normalO=lnfalse(δ17normalO+1false)−λRL·lnfalse(δ18normalO+1false) with λRL = 0.5229) of CO2 in the lowest 500 m of the atmosphere is 39.6 per meg, which is ∼20 per meg lower than estimates from existing box models. We compare our model results with a measured stratospheric Δ17O in CO2 profile from Sodankylä (Finland), which shows good agreement. In addition, we compare our model results with tropospheric measurements of Δ17O in CO2 from Göttingen (Germany) and Taipei (Taiwan), which shows some agreement but we also find substantial discrepancies that are subsequently discussed. Finally, we show model results for Zotino (Russia), Mauna Loa (United States), Manaus (Brazil), and South Pole, which we propose as possible locations for future measurements of Δ17O in tropospheric CO2 that can help to further increase our understanding of the global budget of Δ17O in atmospheric CO2.

The 2015/2016 El Niño event caused severe changes in precipitation across the tropics. This impacted surface hydrology, such as river run-off and soil moisture availability, thereby triggering reductions in gross primary production (GPP). Many biosphere models lack the detailed hydrological component required to accurately quantify anomalies in surface hydrology and GPP during droughts in tropical regions. Here, we take the novel approach of coupling the biosphere model SiBCASA with the advanced hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to attempt such a quantification across the Amazon basin during the drought in 2015/2016. We calculate 30–40% reduced river discharge in the Amazon starting in October 2015, lagging behind the precipitation anomaly by approximately one month and in good agreement with river gauge observations. Soil moisture shows distinctly asymmetrical spatial anomalies with large reductions across the north-eastern part of the basin, which persisted into the following dry season. This added to drought stress in vegetation, already present owing to vapour pressure deficits at the leaf, resulting in a loss of GPP of 0.95 (0.69 to 1.20) PgC between October 2015 and March 2016 compared with the 2007–2014 average. Only 11% (10–12%) of the reduction in GPP was found in the (wetter) north-western part of the basin, whereas the north-eastern and southern regions were affected more strongly, with 56% (54–56%) and 33% (31–33%) of the total, respectively. Uncertainty on this anomaly mostly reflects the unknown rooting depths of vegetation.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.