This study estimates the effect of fluctuations in local labor conditions on the likelihood that existing participants are able to transition out of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Our primary data are SNAP administrative records from New York (2007–2012) linked to the 2010 Census at the person-level. We further augment these data by linking to industry-specific labor market indicators at the county-level. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time individuals spend on SNAP, but there is substantial heterogeneity in estimated effects across local industries. While employment growth in industries with small shares of SNAP participants has no impact on SNAP exits, growth in local industries with high shares of SNAP participants, especially food service and retail, significantly increases the likelihood that recipients exit the program. We also observe corresponding increases in entries when these industries experience localized contractions. Notably, estimated industry effects vary across race groups and parental status, with Black Alone non-Hispanic, Hispanic, and mothers benefiting the least from improvements in local labor market conditions. Our models include county fixed effects and time trends, and our results are identified by detrended within-county variation in local labor market conditions. We confirm that our results are not driven by endogenous inter-county mobility, New York City labor markets, or cohort composition effects associated with the Great Recession.

This study estimates the effect of local labor demand on the likelihood that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries are able to transition out of the program. Our data include SNAP administrative records from New York (2007York ( to 2012, linked at the person-level to the 2010 Census, and linked at the county-monthlevel to industry-specific labor market conditions. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time spent on SNAP, but there is substantial heterogeneity in estimated effects across local industries. Using Bartik-style instruments to isolate the effect of labor demand and controlling for the changing composition of entrants and program rules brought on by the Great Recession, we find that fluctuations in labor demand in industries with high shares of SNAP participants-especially food service and retail-change the likelihood of exiting the program. Notably, estimated industry effects vary across race and parental status, with black participants being most sensitive to changes in local labor market conditions and mothers benefiting less from growth in local labor demand than fathers and non-parents.

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