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Gray seals were first observed breeding in the Dutch Wadden Sea in 1985, after centuries of absence. The breeding colony there is now the largest on the European continent. We describe the changes in gray seal numbers and their geographical expansion, and estimate how these processes were influenced by immigration from other colonies. Counts of hauled out animals were carried out between 1985 and 2013, monitoring three different periods of the seals' annual cycle. Using priors determined for the UK population, a Bayesian demographic model was fitted to pup numbers to estimate the population parameters driving the growth. This included immigration of subadults into the breeding population, which contributed to an average growth rate in the pup counts of 19%/yr, much higher than expected in a closed population. This immigration may account for approximately 35% of the total annual growth. In addition, at least 200 gray seals from the UK visit the area temporarily. Recovery of the population in the Netherlands occurred more than 50 yr after gray seals were protected in the UK. These time scales should be taken into account when studying long living marine mammals, e.g., in impact and conservation studies.

Salt marshes, providing numerous ecosystem services, are degrading worldwide. To effectively aid conservation and restoration efforts, increased knowledge on marsh expansion processes and the initial establishment of pioneer vegetation is essential. In this study, we disentangle environmental drivers that affect the lifecycle of the annual pioneer Salicornia procumbens at the salt marsh edge. We studied the effect of various environmental variables on the start of germination, germination success and mortality before seed-set in a field experiment in the Dutch Wadden Sea at Westhoek. Our results indicate that temperature and sedimentation inhibited the initiation of germination. Once germination occurred, higher precipitation rates increased germination success. In contrast, sedimentation rates above 0.5 mm day −1 halved germination success through burial of freshly sprouted seedlings. Unexpectedly, natural germination was low, indicating that seed availability may have been limited, despite a seed source nearby. Frequent inundation, extended periods without inundation (through desiccation of the soil) and a highly dynamic bed level increased mortality before seed-set. Consequently, bed-level dynamics (erosion, sedimentation and bed-level variation) impact seed production dually (decrease germination and increase mortality) and thus potentially reproduction success. A high seed reproduction is crucial for annuals, such as S. procumbens, to re-establish the following year. Next to advancing our general knowledge of natural salt marsh expansion, results in this study can also be used to assess the potential of a given site for salt marsh stimulation or restoration. Seed availability and local bedlevel dynamics are key in the successful establishment of a salt marsh pioneer: Salicornia procumbens.

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