Understanding chemical mechanisms requires estimating dynamical statistics such as expected hitting times, reaction rates, and committors. Here, we present a general framework for calculating these dynamical quantities by approximating boundary value problems using dynamical operators with a Galerkin expansion. A specific choice of basis set in the expansion corresponds to estimation of dynamical quantities using a Markov state model. More generally, the boundary conditions impose restrictions on the choice of basis sets. We demonstrate how an alternative basis can be constructed using ideas from diffusion maps. In our numerical experiments, this basis gives results of comparable or better accuracy to Markov state models. Additionally, we show that delay embedding can reduce the information lost when projecting the system's dynamics for model construction; this improves estimates of dynamical statistics considerably over the standard practice of increasing the lag time.

Umbrella sampling efficiently yields equilibrium averages that depend on exploring rare states of a model by biasing simulations to windows of coordinate values and then combining the resulting data with physical weighting. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework that casts the step of combining the data as an eigenproblem. The advantage to this approach is that it facilitates error analysis. We discuss how the error scales with the number of windows. Then, we derive a central limit theorem for averages that are obtained from umbrella sampling. The central limit theorem suggests an estimator of the error contributions from individual windows, and we develop a simple and computationally inexpensive procedure for implementing it. We demonstrate this estimator for simulations of the alanine dipeptide and show that it emphasizes low free energy pathways between stable states in comparison to existing approaches for assessing error contributions. Our work suggests the possibility of using the estimator and, more generally, the eigenvector method for umbrella sampling to guide adaptation of the simulation parameters to accelerate convergence. Published by AIP Publishing. [http://dx

The protein hormone insulin exists in various oligomeric forms, and a key step in binding its cellular receptor is dissociation of the dimer. This dissociation process and its corresponding association process have come to serve as paradigms of coupled (un)folding and (un)binding more generally. Despite its fundamental and practical importance, the mechanism of insulin dimer dissociation remains poorly understood. Here, we use molecular dynamics simulations, leveraging recent developments in umbrella sampling, to characterize the energetic and structural features of dissociation in unprecedented detail. We find that the dissociation is inherently multipathway with limiting behaviors corresponding to conformational selection and induced fit, the two prototypical mechanisms of coupled folding and binding. Along one limiting path, the dissociation leads to detachment of the C-terminal segment of the insulin B chain from the protein core, a feature believed to be essential for receptor binding. We simulate IR spectroscopy experiments to aid in interpreting current experiments and identify sites where isotopic labeling can be most effective for distinguishing the contributions of the limiting mechanisms.

The cyanobacterial clock proteins KaiA, KaiB, and KaiC form a powerful system to study the biophysical basis of circadian rhythms, because an in vitro mixture of the three proteins is sufficient to generate a robust ∼24-h rhythm in the phosphorylation of KaiC. The nucleotide-bound states of KaiC critically affect both KaiB binding to the N-terminal domain (CI) and the phosphotransfer reactions that (de)phosphorylate the KaiC C-terminal domain (CII). However, the nucleotide exchange pathways associated with transitions among these states are poorly understood. In this study, we integrate recent advances in molecular dynamics methods to elucidate the structure and energetics of the pathway for Mg·ADP release from the CII domain. We find that nucleotide release is coupled to large-scale conformational changes in the KaiC hexamer. Solvating the nucleotide requires widening the subunit interface leading to the active site, which is linked to extension of the A-loop, a structure implicated in KaiA binding. These results provide a molecular hypothesis for how KaiA acts as a nucleotide exchange factor. In turn, structural parallels between the CI and CII domains suggest a mechanism for allosteric coupling between the domains. We relate our results to structures observed for other hexameric ATPases, which perform diverse functions.

For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem in computational statistical physics. We have derived perturbation bounds on the relative error of the invariant distribution that reveal these variations in sensitivity. Our bounds are sharp, we do not impose any structural assumptions on the transition matrix or on the perturbation, and computing the bounds has the same complexity as computing the invariant distribution or computing other bounds in the literature. Moreover, our bounds have a simple interpretation in terms of hitting times, which can be used to draw intuitive but rigorous conclusions about the sensitivity of a chain to various types of perturbations.