This paper, prepared for the No Campaign, uses the OEF Global Macroeconometric Model to assess the impact of the housing market on the UK's convergence with the Eurozone. The OEF Model provides the ideal framework for such analysis, as it incorporates a detailed system for forecasting UK house prices, transactions, mortgage borrowing and their interaction with consumer spending and the wider economy, within the context of a model of the Eurozone economy. Our analysis suggests that, if the government were to wish to take the UK into EMU, action to reduce the impact of changes in interest rates on the housing market would be beneficial in improving the UK's economic stability. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...…
The question of whether and when sterling should join Economic and Monetary Union is likely to be one of the key battlegrounds in the next election campaign. In this article, Erik Britton and Scott Livermore argue that there is no clear economic case in favour of sterling's entry to EMU. However, if as the government asserts – the political will to join exists, steps could be taken now, adjusting the mix of macroeconomic policy, to ensure that convergence was likely shortly after the next election.
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