River regulation induces immediate and chronic changes to floodplain ecosystems. We analysed both short-term and prolonged effects of river regulation on the growth patterns of the keystone riparian tree species Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii) at three upper Colorado River Basin rivers having different magnitudes of flow regulation. We compared cottonwood basal area increment on (i) the regulated Upper Green River below Flaming Gorge Dam; (ii) the adjacent free-flowing Yampa River; and (iii) the partially regulated Lower Green River below their confluence. Our goal was to identify the hydrologic and climatic variables most influential to tree growth under different flow regimes. A dendrochronological analysis of 182 trees revealed a long-term (37 years) trend of declining growth during the postdam period on the Upper Green, but trees on the partially regulated Lower Green maintained growth rates similar to those on the reference Yampa River. Mean annual, mean growing season, and peak annual discharges were the multicollinear flow variables most correlated to growth during both pre-dam and post-dam periods at all sites. Annual precipitation was also highly correlated with tree growth, but precipitation occurring during the growing season was poorly correlated with tree growth, even under full river regulation conditions. This indicates that cottonwoods rely primarily on groundwater recharged by river flows. Our results illustrate the complex and prolonged effects of flow regulation on floodplain forests, and suggest that flow regulation designed to simulate specific aspects of flow regimes, particularly peak flows, may promote the persistence of these ecosystems.

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