The ocean economy is experiencing rapid growth that will provide benefits but will also pose environmental and social risks. With limited space and degraded resources in coastal areas, offshore waters will be a particular focus of Blue Economy expansion over the next decade. When emerging and established economic sectors expand in offshore waters (within national Exclusive Economic Zones), different potential Blue Economy opportunities and challenges will arise. Following a series of interdisciplinary workshops, we imagine two technically possible futures for the offshore Blue Economy and we identify the actions required to achieve the more sustainable outcome. Under a business as usual scenario the focus will remain on economic growth, the commodification of nature, the dominance of private over public and cultural interests, and prioritisation of the interests of current over future generations. A more sustainable scenario would meet multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals and ensure inclusive economic developments, environmental sustainability, and fair and equitable access to resources and technologies across users, nations, and generations. Challenges to this more sustainable future are a lack of infrastructure and technology to support emerging offshore sectors, limited understanding of environmental impacts, inequitable outcomes, and a lack of planning and governmental oversight. Addressing these challenges will require a shift in societal values, a more balanced allocation of funding to offshore activities, transparency in information sharing between industries and across nations, and adjustment of international legal and institutional mechanisms. The sustainable and equitable offshore Blue Economy we envisage is achievable and provides a unique opportunity to build global capacity and partnership.

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Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: 1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; 2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and 3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual' -a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future' -optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

Bubble emission mechanisms from submerged large igneous provinces remains enigmatic. The Kerguelen Plateau, a large igneous province in the southern Indian Ocean, has a long sustained history of active volcanism and glacial/interglacial cycles of sedimentation, both of which may cause seafloor bubble production. We present the results of hydroacoustic flare observations around the underexplored volcanically active Heard Island and McDonald Islands on the Central Kerguelen Plateau. Flares were observed with a split‐beam echosounder and characterized using multifrequency decibel differencing. Deep‐tow camera footage, water properties, water column δ3He, subbottom profile, and sediment δ13C and δ34S data were analyzed to consider flare mechanisms. Excess δ3He near McDonald Islands seeps, indicating mantle‐derived input, suggests proximal hydrothermal activity; McDonald Islands flares may thus indicate CO2, methane, and other minor gas bubbles associated with shallow diffuse hydrothermal venting. The Heard Island seep environment, with subbottom acoustic blanking in thick sediment, muted 3He signal, and δ13C and δ34S fractionation factors, suggest that Heard Island seeps may either be methane gas (possibly both shallow biogenic methane and deeper‐sourced thermogenic methane related to geothermal heat from onshore volcanism) or a combination of methane and CO2, such as seen in sediment‐hosted geothermal systems. These data provide the first evidence of submarine gas escape on the Central Kerguelen Plateau and expand our understanding of seafloor processes and carbon cycling in the data‐poor southern Indian Ocean. Extensive sedimentation of the Kerguelen Plateau and additional zones of submarine volcanic activity mean additional seeps or vents may lie outside the small survey area proximal to the islands.

Basal melting of ice shelves is inherently difficult to quantify through direct observations, yet it is a critical factor controlling Antarctic mass balance and global sea-level rise. While much research attention is paid to larger ice shelves and those experiencing the most rapid change, many smaller, unstudied ice shelves offer valuable insights. Here, we investigate the oceanographic conditions and melting beneath the Sørsdal ice shelf, East Antarctica. We present results from the 2018/2019 Sørsdal deployment of the University of Tasmania's autonomous underwater vehicle nupiri muka. Oceanography adjacent to and beneath the ice shelf front shows a cold and relatively saline environment dominated by Winter Water and Dense Shelf Water, while bathymetry measurements show a deep (∼1,200 m) trough running into the ice shelf cavity. Two multiyear deployments of Autonomous Phase-sensitive Radar Echo Sounders on the surface of the ice shelf show weak melt rates (average of 1.6 and 2.3 m yr −1) with low temporal variability. These observations are supported by numerical ocean model and satellite estimates of melting. We speculate that the presence of a ∼825 m thick (350 m to at least 1,175 m) homogeneous layer of cold, dense water blocks access from warmer waters that intrude into Prydz Bay from offshore, resulting in weak melt rates. However, the newly identified trough means that the ice shelf is vulnerable to any decrease in polynya activity that allows warm water to enter the cavity. This could lead to increased basal melting and mass loss through this sector of Antarctica.