In recent years, wildfires in the western United States have occurred with increasing frequency and scale. Climate change scenarios in California predict prolonged periods of droughts with even greater potential for conditions amenable to wildfires. The Sierra Nevada Mountains provide 70% of water resources in California, yet how wildfires will impact watershed-scale hydrology is highly uncertain. In this work, we assess the impacts of wildfires perturbations on watershed hydrodynamics using a physically based integrated hydrologic model in a high-performance-computing framework. A representative Californian watershed, the Cosumnes River, is used to demonstrate how postwildfire conditions impact the water and energy balance.Results from the high-resolution model show counterintuitive feedbacks that occur following a wildfire and allow us to identify the regions most sensitive to wildfires conditions, as well as the hydrologic processes that are most affected. For example, whereas evapotranspiration generally decreases in the postfire simulations, some regions experience an increase due to changes in surface water run-off patterns in and near burn scars. Postfire conditions also yield greater winter snowpack and subsequently greater summer run-off as well as groundwater storage in the postfire simulations. Comparisons between dry and wet water years show that climate is the main factor controlling the timing at which some hydrologic processes occur (such as snow accumulation) whereas postwildfire changes to other metrics (such as streamflow) show seasonally dependent impacts primarily due to the timing of snowmelt, illustrative of the integrative nature of hydrologic processes across the Sierra Nevada-Central Valley interface. K E Y W O R D S climate extremes, integrated hydrologic model, vegetation changes, water management, watershed dynamics, wildfires
Major components of hydrologic and elemental cycles reside underground, where their complex dynamics and linkages to surface waters are obscure. We delineated seasonal subsurface flow and transport dynamics along a hillslope in the Rocky Mountains (USA), where precipitation occurs primarily as winter snow and drainage discharges into the East River, a tributary of the Gunnison River. Hydraulic and geochemical measurements down to 10 m below ground surface supported application of transmissivity feedback of snowmelt to describe subsurface flow and transport through three zones: soil, weathering shale, and saturated fractured shale. Groundwater flow is predicted to depths of at least 176 m, although a shallower limit exists if hillslope‐scale hydraulic conductivities are higher than our local measurements. Snowmelt during the high snowpack water year 2017 sustained flow along the weathering zone and downslope within the soil, while negligible downslope flow occurred along the soil during the low snowpack water year 2018. We introduce subsurface concentration‐discharge (C‐Q) relations for explaining hillslope contributions to C‐Q observed in rivers and demonstrate their calculations based on transmissivity fluxes and measured pore water specific conductance and dissolved organic carbon. The specific conductance data show that major ions in the hillslope pore waters, primarily from the weathering and fractured shale, are about six times more concentrated than in the river, indicating hillslope solute loads are disproportionately high, while flow from this site and similar regions are relatively smaller. This methodology is applicable in different representative environments within snow‐dominated watersheds for linking their subsurface exports to surface waters.
With the onset of climate change, regions relied upon for water supply are increasingly subject to end-member fluctuations between periods of severe drought followed by extreme precipitation. The impacts of these extreme conditions on watershed hydrodynamics in water-resource sensitive regions such as California are unknown despite their great importance for resilience and water management purposes. Understanding these impacts requires high-resolution physically based models to capture sharp variations of topography, land use, wetting fronts, etc. An integrated hydrologic model was used in a high-performance computing framework to study the complex nonlinear dynamics occurring at a representative Californian watershed. The Cosumnes Watershed, one of the last major rivers in California without a dam, offers a rare opportunity to isolate the effects of water management from climate extremes. Here, we show model validation with comparisons between model outputs and local measurements in addition to various satellite-based products including (1) Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and a reconstruction method by Bair and co-authors, (2) soil moisture with Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and (3) evapotranspiration (ET) with Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC). To assess changes in hydro-dynamic behavior during climate extremes and their transitions, a simulation spanning a recent drought followed by the highest precipitation year on record (2015-2017) is discussed. From these simulations, we are able to highlight regions that are the most sensitive to climate extremes, which depend on many factors including hydrologic connectivity, geology and topography. These analyses provide a better understanding of the physical phenomena occurring in the watershed, strengthening our knowledge of how the system may respond to extreme conditions which might become the "new normal.
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