As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought-sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.

Liana density tends to increase with decreasing rainfall and increasing seasonality. However, the pattern of liana distribution may be due to differences in soil water retention capacity, not rainfall and seasonality per se. We tested the effect of rainfall and soil substrate with respect to the distribution of liana seedlings in six sites across a rainfall gradient from the wet Atlantic to the dry Pacific in central Panama. Soils were either limestone, with low water‐holding capacity, or laterite, with higher water‐holding capacity. We sampled liana seedlings at each site using three 1 × 100 m transect. We found that relative liana seedling density was higher on limestone soils compared to laterite soils regardless of the amount of rainfall. Furthermore, liana community composition on limestone soils was more similar to dry forest sites than to adjacent wet and moist forest sites. Liana seedling species diversity relative to trees was significantly higher in a low‐fertility dry forest site compared to a high‐fertility forest, but did not differ from the other sites. Thus, liana seedling density and community structure may be driven more by soil type and thus by soil moisture availability than strictly by mean annual rainfall and the seasonality of rainfall.

In tropical forests, insect herbivores exert significant pressure on plant populations. Adaptation to such pressure is hypothesized to be a driver of high tropical diversity, but direct evidence for local adaptation to herbivory in tropical forests is sparse. At the same time, herbivore pressure has been hypothesized to increase with rainfall in the tropics, which could lead to differences among sites in the degree of local adaptation. To assess the presence of local adaptation and its interaction with rainfall, we compared herbivore damage on seedlings of local vs. nonlocal populations at sites differing in moisture availability in a reciprocal transplant experiment spanning a rainfall gradient in Panama. For 13 native tree species, seeds collected from multiple populations along the rainfall gradient were germinated in a shadehouse and then transplanted to experimental sites within the species range. We tracked the proportion of seedlings attacked over 1.5 yr and quantified the percentage of leaf area damaged at the end of the study. Seedlings originating from local populations were less likely to be attacked and experienced lower amounts of herbivore damage than those from nonlocal populations, but only on the wetter end of the rainfall gradient. However, overall herbivore damage was higher at the drier site compared to wetter sites, contrary to expectation. Taken together, these findings support the idea that herbivory can result in local adaptation within tropical tree species; however, the likelihood of local adaptation varies among sites because of environmentally driven differences in investment in defense or herbivore specialization or both.

Over the past decades, tropical forests have experienced both compositional and structural changes. In the Neotropics, researchers at multiple sites have observed significant increases in the abundance and biomass of lianas (i.e. woody vines) relative to trees. However, the role of dynamics at early life stages in contributing to increasing liana abundance remains unclear. We took advantage of a unique dataset on seedling dynamics over 16 years in ~20 000 1‐m2 plots in a tropical forest in Panama to examine temporal and spatial trends in liana and tree seedling abundance. We found that the relative abundance of liana seedlings increased across the study period, from 0.18 in 2001 to 0.24 in 2017. However, increases in liana seedling relative abundance appear to have levelled off in more recent years. The observed increases in liana relative abundance appear to be the result of both higher survival and higher recruitment rates of liana seedlings compared to tree seedlings. Increasing liana abundance in the seedling layer was not explained by annual variation in dry season length, total rainfall or the proportion of area occupied by canopy gaps. In addition, liana seedlings did not exhibit a demographic advantage (i.e. higher recruitment or survival) over tree seedlings in dry habitats. Synthesis. Our results reveal that seedling communities experienced important compositional changes in the past, but liana seedling relative abundance may have stabilized in recent years. Longer‐term monitoring is needed to determine whether tropical forests will continue to experience compositional changes that may alter forest structure and ecosystem function.