With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient features of wind speed: alternating atmospheric regimes, temporal and spatial correlation, diurnal and seasonal non-stationarity, conditional heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussianity. The RST method identifies forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed meteorological observations in the vicinity of the wind farm are used as off-site predictors.The RST technique was applied to 2-hour ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed at the Stateline wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. In July 2003, for instance, the RST forecasts had root-mean-square error (RMSE) 28.6% less than the persistence forecasts. For each month in the test period, the RST forecasts had lower RMSE than forecasts using state-of-the-art vector time series techniques. The RST method provides probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive cumulative distribution functions, and those were well calibrated and sharp. The RST prediction intervals were substantially shorter on average than prediction intervals derived from univariate time series techniques. These results suggest that quality meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts of wind resources. It is anticipated that the RST technique can be successfully applied at wind energy sites all over the world. Report Documentation PageForm Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

We identified areas of the brain that are critical for naming pictures of objects, using a new methodology for testing which components of a network of brain regions are essential for that task. We identified areas of hypoperfusion and structural damage with magnetic resonance perfusion-and diffusion-weighted imaging immediately after stroke in 87 individuals with impaired picture naming. These individuals were reimaged after 3-5 d, after a subset of patients underwent intervention to restore normal blood flow, to determine areas of the brain that had reperfused. We identified brain regions in which reperfusion was associated with improvement in picture naming. Restored blood flow to left posterior middle temporal/fusiform gyrus, Broca's area, and/or Wernicke's area accounted for most acute improvement after stroke. Results show that identifying areas of reperfusion that are associated with acute improvement of a function can reveal the brain regions essential for that function.

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Background and Purpose— Central retinal artery occlusion results in acute visual loss with poor spontaneous recovery. Current standard therapies do not alter the natural history of disease. Several open-label clinical studies using continuous infusion of thrombolytic agents have suggested that local intraarterial fibrinolysis (LIF) is efficacious in the treatment of central retinal artery occlusion. The aim is to compare the visual outcome in patients with acute central retinal artery occlusion of presumed thromboembolic etiology treated with LIF administered in aliquots with that of patients treated with standard therapy. Methods— We conducted a single-center, nonrandomized interventional study of consecutive patients with acute central retinal artery occlusion from July 1999 to July 2006. Results— Twenty-one patients received LIF and 21 received standard therapy. Seventy-six percent of subjects in the LIF group had a visual acuity improvement of one line or more compared with 33% in the standard therapy group ( P =0.012, Fisher exact). Multivariate logistic regression controlling for gender, history of prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, and history of hypercholesterolemia showed that patients who received tissue plasminogen activator were 36 times more likely to have improvement in visual acuity ( P =0.0001) after adjusting for these covariates. Post hoc analysis showed that patients who received tissue plasminogen activator were 13 times more likely to have improvement in visual acuity of 3 lines or more ( P =0.03) and 4.9 times more likely to have a final visual acuity of 20/200 or better ( P =0.04). Two groin hematomas were documented in the LIF group. No ischemic strokes, retinal or intracerebral hemorrhages were documented. Conclusions— LIF administered in aliquots is associated with an improvement in visual acuity compared with standard therapy and has few side effects.

Relative distribution methods are a nonparametric statistical approach to the comparison of distributions. These methods combine the graphical tools of exploratory data analysis with statistical summaries, decomposition, and inference.This report demonstrates software for implementing relative distribution methods within the R statistical package. It describes how to download and install the software, and use it to redo the analysis in the paper "Relative Distribution Methods" by Mark S. Handcock

Sites of lesions responsible for visual, tactile, and/or motor extinction have not been clearly identified. We sought to determine the frequency of extinction in various modalities immediately after acute ischemic stroke, the rate of co-occurrence of extinction across modalities, and areas of infarct and/or hypoperfusion associated with each modality of extinction. A total of 148 patients with right supratentorial stroke were studied. In Study 1, 88 patients without hemiplegia, hemianesthesia, or visual field cuts were tested within 24 hours of onset for visual, tactile, and motor extinction, and underwent magnetic resonance diffusion and perfusion imaging. Associations between modality of extinction and areas of neural dysfunction (hypoperfusion/infarct) were identified. Of the 88 patients, 19 had only tactile extinction, 8 had only visual extinction, 12 had only motor extinction, 14 had extinction in two or more modalities, and 35 had no extinction. Tactile extinction was associated with neural dysfunction in the inferior parietal lobule; visual extinction was associated with dysfunction in the visual association cortex; and motor extinction was associated with neural dysfunction in the superior temporal gyrus. In Study 2, data from 60 patients who were excluded from Study 1 because of motor deficits were analyzed in the same way to determine whether frontal lesions contributed to visual or tactile extinction. Results again demonstrated that tactile extinction is associated with inferior parietal dysfunction, and visual extinction is associated with dysfunction of the visual association cortex. Potential accounts of the results, based on the "hemisphere rivalry" model of extinction and the limited attentional capacity model, are considered.

Diffusion-perfusion mismatch in left Brodmann area 37 was strongly associated with acute improvement in naming, independently of volume or percentage of total mismatch or diffusion or perfusion abnormality. These data indicate that mismatch in a particular area is a marker of salvageable tissue and an important predictor of potential for recovery of functions that depend on that area. Location of mismatch before treatment may help to predict potential benefits of reperfusion.