Harvested by advanced technical systems honed over decades of research and development, wind energy has become a mainstream energy resource. However, continued innovation is needed to realize the potential of wind to serve the global demand for clean energy. Here, we outline three interdependent, cross-disciplinary grand challenges underpinning this research endeavor. The first is the need for a deeper understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow in the critical zone of plant operation. The second involves science and engineering of the largest dynamic, rotating machines in the world. The third encompasses optimization and control of fleets of wind plants working synergistically within the electricity grid. Addressing these challenges could enable wind power to provide as much as half of our global electricity needs and perhaps beyond.

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Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years-far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. We show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37-49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

Electrical Interface/Connections Electrical interface covers the turbine transformer and the individual turbine's share of cables to the substation. These data originally came from the WindPACT balance-of-station study (Shafer 2001) and were used in this model as originally derived. Electrical interface/connection cost factor ($/kW) = 3.49E-6 * machine rating 2-0.0221 * machine rating + 109.7 Electrical interface/connection cost = machine rating * electrical cost factor above Engineering, Permits Engineering and permits covers the cost of designing and permitting the entire wind facility, allocated on a turbine-by-turbine basis. These costs are highly dependent upon the location, environmental conditions, availability of electrical grid access, and local permitting requirements. The formulas provided here were first derived from the WindPACT balance-ofstation cost study (Shafer 2001) and were used in this model without modification. Engineering, permits cost factor ($/kW) = 9.94E-4 * machine rating + 20.31 Engineering, permits cost = machine rating * engineering, permits cost factor above Land Lease Costs Wind turbines normally pay lease fees for land used for wind farm development. This cost is principally based on the land used by the turbine. The factors applied in different wind farm developments vary widely depending on the wind class of the particular site, the nature and value of the land, and the potential market price for the wind. No single number or model is currently available to predict these costs based on turbine rating, size, or wind class. The number used in this model is based on a cost per kilowatt-hour of production making it highly variable with wind class and machine performance. This cost was proposed for the LWST Project and defined in the report on pathways analysis (Malcolm 2006

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Executive Summary Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost of energy reductions. This summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, The Cost of Wind Energy, provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, reviews the methods used to estimate long-term cost trajectories, and summarizes the range of costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. It also highlights high-level market variables that have influenced wind energy costs in the past and are expected to do so into the future. Historical and Near-Term Trends in the Levelized Cost of Wind Energy Between 1980 and the early 2000s, significant reductions in capital cost and increases in performance had the combined effect of dramatically reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for onshore wind energy. Data from three different historical evaluations, including internal analysis by the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as well as published estimates from Lemming et al. (2009) and the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) (1999), illustrate that the LCOE of wind power declined by a factor of more than three, from more than $150/MWh to approximately $50/MWh between 1980s and the early 2000s (Figure ES-1). However, beginning in about 2003 and continuing through the latter half of the past decade, wind power capital costs increased-driven by rising commodity and raw materials prices, increased labor costs, improved manufacturer profitability, and turbine upscaling-thus pushing wind's LCOE upward in spite of continued performance improvements (Figure ES-1). Figure ES-1. Estimated LCOE for wind energy between 1980 and 2009 for the United States and Europe (excluding incentives) LBNL/NREL Internal Analysis DEA 1999 Lemming et al. 2009 (Coastal European Sites) v More recently, turbine prices and therefore project capital costs have declined, but still have not returned to the historical lows observed earlier in the 2000s. At the same time, however, performance improvements have continued. As a result, modeling based on capital cost and performance data from the United States and Denmark for projects expected to be built in 2012-2013 suggests that the LCOE of onshore wind energy is now at an all-time low within fixed wind resource classes, and particularly in low and medium wind speed areas (Figure ES-2). Moreover, the fact that capital costs remain higher than in the early 2000s but that those increased costs are rewarded by improved performance and a lower LCOE demonstrates the fundamental interdependence of capital cost and performance in wind turbine and project design. Figure ES-2. LCOE for wind energy over time in the United States (left) and Denmark (right) Sources: Wiser et al. 2012, ...

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