This study examines the information flow between inflation and inflation uncertainty (IU) and intrastate inflationary trend among some ECOWAS member states. IU is measured using GARCH models and stochastic volatility model (SV). Transfer entropy was adopted to quantify the extent of information flow. The result showed information flow exists from inflation to the GARCH measure of IU. On the reverse flow from inflation uncertainty to inflation, there is no information flow except for Burkina Faso and Gambia which have asymmetric bidirectional flow between inflation and IU. Adopting SV measure for IU, there are no support for causality from inflation to IU for all the member states except Burkina Faso and Cabo Verde. For the reverse flow, causality exists in all the member states. On the pairwise inflation trend of member states, inflation trends are interconnected and that shocks in one country may transmit to others except for Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Specifically, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria inflation shocks have the greatest effect on other WAMZ members within the study period, whereas inflation trend in Benin, Niger and Cote d’Ivoire are the most influential among WAEMU states. In conclusion, inflation - IU relationship is sensitive to how IU is measured leading to mixed findings. This study recommends the need for price stability among the ECOWAS member states. Given the interdependence among some members of each bloc of ECOWAS, policy synchronization on price stability could enhance the overall objective of single digit inflation and reduce the welfare effect of inflation uncertainty.
This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil price shocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the Structural Vector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12. The impulse response analysis showed that for pre and post-crisis periods, oil price shocks have a positive impact on CPI. This impact was an insignificant direct momentary increase in pre-crisis CPI before dissipating. Conversely, the impact on post crisis CPI response tends to be stable and long-lasting starting from the third month. The confidence bands for the post crisis CPI are large, indicating the long-lasting positive response in the CPI pose no significant threat to price stability in the long run horizon. In conclusion, CPI response varies in terms of intensity for pre and post crisis periods. In terms of level of significance, the effect of the shocks on CPI is transient and insignificant in both periods. The post crisis oil price shock is not a significant channel that created price instability in Nigeria after the crisis and this study recommend partial deregulation of energy price should be maintained. Establishing oil price –inflation pass-through, external shocks like financial crisis should be accounted for.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.