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Recent years have seen an exponential increase in the amount of data available in all sciences and application domains. Macroecology is part of this “Big Data” trend, with a strong rise in the volume of data that we are using for our research. Here, we summarize the most recent developments in macroecology in the age of Big Data that were presented at the 2018 annual meeting of the Specialist Group Macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (GfÖ). Supported by computational advances, macroecology has been a rapidly developing field over recent years. Our meeting highlighted important avenues for further progress in terms of standardized data collection, data integration, method development and process integration. In particular, we focus on (a) important data gaps and new initiatives to close them, for example through space‐ and airborne sensors, (b) how various data sources and types can be integrated, (c) how uncertainty can be assessed in data‐driven analyses and (d) how Big Data and machine learning approaches have opened new ways of investigating processes rather than simply describing patterns. We discuss how Big Data opens up new opportunities, but also poses new challenges to macroecological research. In the future, it will be essential to carefully assess data quality, the reproducibility of data compilation and analytical methods, and the communication of uncertainties. Major progress in the field will depend on the definition of data standards and workflows for macroecology, such that scientific quality and integrity are guaranteed, and collaboration in research projects is made easier.

IntroductionPlasma factor VIII (FVIII) and von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels have been associated with the rate and severity of arterial thrombus formation and have been linked to outcomes following thrombolytic therapy in acute myocardial infarction patients. Here, we aimed to investigate FVIII and VWF levels during the course of thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients and to find out whether they predict long-term outcomes.Materials and methodsStudy population included 131 consecutive AIS patients (median age: 69 years, 60.3% men) who underwent i.v. thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). Blood samples were taken on admission, 1 and 24 h after rt-PA administration to measure FVIII activity and VWF antigen levels. Neurological deficit of patients was determined according to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). ASPECT scores were assessed using computer tomography images taken before and 24 h after thrombolysis. Intracranial hemorrhage was classified according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) II criteria. Long-term functional outcome was determined at 90 days after the event by the modified Rankin scale (mRS).ResultsVWF levels on admission were significantly elevated in case of more severe AIS [median and IQR values: NIHSS <6:189.6% (151.9–233.2%); NIHSS 6–16: 199.6% (176.4–250.8%); NIHSS >16: 247.8% (199.9–353.8%), p = 0.013]; similar, but non-significant trend was observed for FVIII levels. FVIII and VWF levels correlated well on admission (r = 0.748, p < 0.001) but no significant correlation was found immediately after thrombolysis (r = 0.093, p = 0.299), most probably due to plasmin-mediated FVIII degradation. VWF levels at all investigated occasions and FVIII activity before and 24 h after thrombolysis were associated with worse 24 h post-lysis ASPECT scores. In a binary backward logistic regression analysis including age, gender, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, active smoking, diabetes, and NIHSS >5 on admission, elevated FVIII and VWF levels after thrombolysis were independently associated with poor functional outcomes (mRS ≥ 3) at 90 days (immediately after thrombolysis: FVIII: OR: 7.10, 95% CI: 1.77–28.38, p = 0.006, VWF: OR: 6.31, 95% CI: 1.83–21.73, p = 0.003; 24 h after thrombolysis: FVIII: OR: 4.67, 95% CI: 1.42–15.38, p = 0.011, VWF: OR: 19.02, 95% CI: 1.94–186.99, p = 0.012).ConclusionElevated FVIII activity and VWF antigen levels immediately after lysis and at 24 h post-therapy were shown to have independent prognostic values regarding poor functional outcomes at 90 days.

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This paper presents the results of forecasting the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) through the use of satellite-obtained global brightness temperature data with a recently developed nonparametric empirical method. This new method, referred to as kernel analog forecasting, adopts specific indices extracted using the technique of nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis as baseline definitions of the intraseasonal oscillations of interest, which are then extended into forecasts through an iterated weighted averaging scheme that exploits the predictability inherent to those indices. The pattern correlation of the forecasts produced in this manner remains above 0.6 for 50 days for both the MJO and BSISO when 23 yr of training data are used and 37 days for the MJO when 9 yr of data are used.

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In this observational study we investigated whether levels of factor XIII (FXIII) and its major polymorphisms affect the outcome of thrombolysis by recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. Study cohort included 132 consecutive AIS patients undergoing i.v. thrombolysis within 4.5 h of symptom onset. Blood samples taken on admission, immediately after and 24 h after therapy were analyzed for FXIII activity and antigen levels. FXIII-A p.Val34Leu, p.Tyr204Phe, FXIII-B p.His95Arg and intron K(IVS11 + 144) polymorphisms were genotyped. Neurological deficit was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Intracranial hemorrhage was classified according to ECASSII criteria. Long-term functional outcome was defined at 3 months post-event by the modified Rankin scale. FXIII levels showed a gradual decrease immediately after thrombolysis and 24 h later, which was not related to therapy-associated bleeding. In a multiple logistic regression model, a FXIII level in the lowest quartile 24 h post-lysis proved to be an independent predictor of mortality by 14 days post-event (OR:4.95, 95% CI:1.31–18.68, p < 0.05). No association was found between the investigated FXIII polymorphisms and therapeutic outcomes. In conclusion, our findings indicate that FXIII levels 24 h after thrombolysis might help to identify patients at increased risk for short-term mortality.

Forced climate warming can now be identified using statistical learning even under potentially large climate variability.