A reliable future development plan of an oilfield would require that all of the elements in the petroleum system are modeled in an integrated manner if a timely response, a more realistic economical evaluation, and risk analysis are needed for better decisions making. The main goal for future development of Tomoporo field is to change the traditional focus (petroleum system elements by separated) by enabling to multidisciplinary team members to take advantage of their expertises within a collaborative environment based on interaction among petroleum system components. The Tomoporo field's hydrocarbon reserves have been largely developed in offshore, but barely in onshore. It has been planned to increase production twice through new producing wells in onshore area which presents several limitations for handling production. Also a plan for pressure support, and improved oil recovery have been considered by implementing a waterflooding project. This paper shows an innovative integrated asset methodology, applied for forecasting scenarios where reservoir, surface network, geographic location aspects, economy, risk, and uncertainty analysis were considered. The evaluation of forecasting scenarios was performed by implementing an integrated asset modeling (IAM) where all of simulation scenarios were coupled with a surface network model. Such network modeling included itself three integration levels to address complexity of surface facility needed for future offshore-onshore field development. In addition, an innovative link from reservoir-surface network models to the economic model was developed for a fully assisted asset modeling, resulting in faster and more reliable scenarios evaluation. The IAM for Tomoporo field provided valuable information for all team members of the production stream, maximizing benefits from decision making based on a fully coupled asset model. This integrated approach determined that greater recovery factor and less reservoir pressure drop are achieved if an onshore flow station is added for new onshore wells in spite of existing capabilities in offshore surface facilities. The IAM approach triggered warnings about future needs (investment, expenses), and also to be alert in minimizing bottlenecks in order to ensure no violation of surface capacity constraints. In addition, it allowed to define operating limits of water injection plants, enabling that optimum operation conditions are set, and the added value of the Tomoporo field development be maximized.
The studied reservoir has one of the greatest heavy-oil reserves (OOIP about 12.2 MMMSTB) in the Maracaibo Lake basin. It has been largely developed except for one coastline area (385 km 2 ), which includes both zones' land and shallow water. Limited access of conventional drilling rigs in the area, coupled with low definition of the structural, stratigraphic, and petrophysical model have reduced drilling activities.Plans have been made to increase production by 20% through drilling of wells in the coastline area. This plan requires the consideration of multiple variables, such as new surface facilities, drilling rigs for both geographical environments, rock heterogeneity, compartmentalized structure (6 blocks), low number of drilled wells (8 wells), and limited reservoir data, which will generate a large number of development scenarios. This paper presents a probabilistic production forecasting of the coastline reserves through an innovative approach based on a systematic evaluation of risk and uncertainty of reservoir variables, and a maximization of net present value (NPV). The optimization of a large number of decision variables, such as the type of drilling rigs, type of wells completion, and seismic acquisition zone, was obtained. The optimal stochastic scenario showed a NPV with a 340% increase compared with the best deterministic scenario.This approach triggered warnings about the current plans for seismic data acquisition, which proved to be uneconomical despite expected improvements in the geological and stratigraphic framework. Therefore, the drilling of stratigraphic wells becomes an alternative to partially substitute seismic survey.Finally, the different operational scenarios showed that development should be done in stages and by geographical areas, starting with stratigraphic deviated wells into shallow water zone using conventional rigs, then vertical and slanted wells in shallow water zone using swamp rigs, and verticals and slanted wells in the ground region using land rigs.
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