BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk.Methods and findingsBetween July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%–95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%–93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3–11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2–6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.ConclusionsOur study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Chronic cough is a common complaint in the general population but there are no precise data on the incidence of, and prospectively examined risk factors for chronic cough in a population-based setting. Therefore, we investigated the period prevalence, incidence and risk factors for chronic cough in adult subjects.In a prospective population-based cohort study among subjects aged ≥45 years, data on chronic cough were collected on two separate occasions using a standardised questionnaire. Chronic cough was defined as daily coughing for at least 3 months duration during the preceding 2 years. Potential risk factors were gathered by interview, physical examination and several investigations.Of the 9824 participants in this study, 1073 (10.9%) subjects had chronic cough at baseline. The prevalence of chronic cough increased with age and peaked in the eighth decade. In subjects aged <70 years, chronic cough was more common in women. During an average follow-up of 6 years, 439 incident cases of chronic cough occurred with an overall incidence rate of 11.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 10.6–12.8). In current smokers, the incidence of chronic cough was higher in men. In the multivariable analysis, current smoking, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), asthma and COPD were identified as risk factors for chronic cough.Chronic cough is common among adults and highly prevalent in the older population. Current smoking, GORD, asthma and COPD are independent risk factors for chronic cough. Individuals at risk of developing chronic cough may benefit from smoking cessation and control of the underlying disease.

Four percent of middle-aged and older adults have physician-diagnosed asthma. These adult asthmatics suffer more frequently from obesity and depression than subjects without obstructive lung disease.

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Background: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are a cornerstone of asthma treatment.However, their efficacy is characterized by wide variability in individual responses. Objective:We investigated the association between genetic variants and risk of exacerbations in adults with asthma and how this association is affected by ICS treatment. Methods:We investigated the pharmacogenetic effect of 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the literature, including SNPs previously associated with response to ICS (assessed by change in lung function or exacerbations) and novel asthma risk alleles involved in inflammatory pathways, within all adults with asthma from the Dutch population-based Rotterdam study with replication in the American GERA cohort. The interaction effects of the SNPs with ICS on the incidence of asthma exacerbations were assessed using hurdle models adjusting for age, sex, BMI, smoking and treatment step according to the GINA guidelines. Haplotype analyses were also conducted for the SNPs located on the same chromosome.Results: rs242941 (CRHR1) homozygotes for the minor allele (A) showed a significant, replicated increased risk for frequent exacerbations (RR = 6.11, P < 0.005). In contrast, rs1134481 T allele within TBXT (chromosome 6, member of a family associated with embryonic lung development) showed better response with ICS. rs37973 G allele (GLCCI1) showed a significantly poorer response on ICS within the discovery cohort, which was also significant but in the opposite direction in the replication cohort.

BackgroundIncreasing evidence suggests that sarcopenia and a higher systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) are linked with morbidity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, whether these two conditions contribute to all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older patients with COPD or asthma is unclear. Therefore, we investigated the association between sarcopenia, SII, COPD, or asthma and all-cause mortality in a large-scale population-based setting.MethodsBetween 2009 and 2014, 4482 participants (aged>55 years, 57.3% female) from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. COPD and asthma patients were clinically and spirometry-based diagnosed. Six study groups were defined according to the presence or absence of COPD or asthma and sarcopenia. Cox regression models were used to assess all-cause mortality in the study groups, adjusted for sex, age, BMI, SII, smoking, oral corticosteroid use and comorbidities. In addition, all participants were categorised into sex-specific quartiles of SII and mortality in these groups was compared.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 6.1 years (IQR 5.0–7.2), 466 (10.4%) persons died. Independent of the presence of sarcopenia, participants with COPD had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 2.13 [95% CI: 1.46 to 3.12], and HR: 1.70 [95% CI: 1.32 to 2.18]). Compared to lower SII levels, higher SII levels increased mortality risk even in people without sarcopenia, COPD or asthma.ConclusionMiddle-aged and older people with COPD, higher SII levels or sarcopenia had an independently increased mortality risk. Our study suggests prognostic usefulness of routinely evaluating sarcopenia and SII in older people with COPD or asthma.

BackgroundChronic cough is a debilitating medical condition that is often complicated by psychomorbidities such as depressive symptoms. Nevertheless, little is known about the impact of chronic cough on the risk of developing depression. Therefore, we investigated the association between chronic cough and prevalent, incident, as well as recurrent depression in a population-based sample of middle-aged and older persons.MethodsWithin the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort, we defined chronic cough as reporting daily coughing for at least 3 months. Depression was assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies–Depression scale, clinical interviews, and medical records. Associations between chronic cough and depression were determined with linear, logistic and Cox regression analyses.ResultsThe study included 5877 participants (mean age±standard deviation: 72±8 years, 59% female) who contributed 37 287 person-years of follow-up. At baseline, participants with chronic cough reported more depressive symptoms (adjusted standardised mean difference 0.15, 95% CI 0.07–0.22) compared to those without chronic cough. Over time, chronic cough was associated with an increased risk of depression in participants with a history of depression (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13–1.84) but not in those without a history of depression (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68–1.22).ConclusionsAdults with chronic cough have a disproportionate burden of depressive symptoms and an increased risk of recurrent depression. This highlights the importance of screening for depression in patients with chronic cough.

IntroductionSarcopenia is a heterogeneous skeletal muscle disorder involving the loss of muscle mass and function. However, the prevalence of sarcopenia based on the most recent definition remains to be determined in older people with chronic airway diseases.ObjectiveTo evaluate sarcopenia prevalence and association with chronic airway diseases and its lung function in an older population, using the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People 2 (EWGSOP2) criteria.MethodsWe performed a cross-sectional analysis in 5082 participants (mean age, 69.0±8.8 years, 56% females) from the Rotterdam Study. Participants with interpretable spirometry and an available assessment of sarcopenia were included. The appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI) and handgrip strength (HGS) were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and a hydraulic hand dynamometer, respectively. We analysed the association between sarcopenia and chronic airway diseases by using regression models adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, total fat percentage and other relevant confounders.ResultsParticipants with chronic airway diseases had higher prevalence of probable sarcopenia (12.0%, 95% CI 10.2; 13.8) and confirmed sarcopenia (3.0%, 95% CI 2.1; 3.9) than without. Chronic airway diseases were associated with “probable sarcopenia” (OR=1.28, 95%CI 1.02, 1.60), “confirmed sarcopenia” (OR=2.13, 95%CI 1.33, 3.43), reduced HGS (β=−0.51 [−0.90; −0.11]) and reduced ASMI (β=−0.19 [−0.25; −0.14]). FEV1<80% was associated with lower HGS (β=−1.03 [−1.75; −0.31]) and lower ASMI (β=−0.25 [−0.36; −0.15]) than FEV1≥80%.ConclusionSarcopenia was prevalent and associated with chronic airway diseases among older population. These results suggest the need for early diagnosis of sarcopenia in older people with chronic airway diseases by applying EWGSOP2 recommendations.