We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. Ecological Society of America is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Ecology.Abstract. Understanding evolutionary consequences of intermittent breeding (nonbreeding in individuals that previously bred) requires investigation of the relationships between adult breeding state and two demographic parameters: survival probability and subsequent breeding probability. One major difficulty raised by comparing the demographic features of breeders and nonbreeders as estimated from capture-recapture data is that breeding state is often suspected to influence recapture or resighting probability. We used multistate capture-recapture models to test the hypothesis of equal recapture probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding Kittiwakes and found no evidence of an effect of breeding state on this parameter. The same method was used to test whether reproductive state affects survival probability. Nonbreeding individuals have lower survival rates than breeders. Moreover, nonbreeders have a higher probability of being nonbreeders the following year than do breeders. State-specific survival rates and transition probabilities vary from year to year, but temporal variations of survival and transition probabilities of breeders and nonbreeders are in parallel (on a logit scale). These inferences led us to conclude that nonbreeders tend to be lower quality individuals. The effect of sex was also investigated: males and females do not differ with respect to survival probabilities when reproductive state is taken into account. Similarly, there is no effect of sex on transition probabilities between reproductive states. bischer and Wanless 1992). In other words, nonbreeders would be "prudent parents" (Drent andDaan 1980). However, at least two factors are likely to confound the measurement of trade-offs in the wild (Stearns 1992), and empirical studies have often revealed positive phenotypic correlations between components of fitness (Nur 1988, Reznick 1992, Viallefont et al. 1995a, Van Noordwijk and De Jong 1986). First, there could be differences in the amount of energy individuals acquire and allocate to various functions. In that case we might expect that some individuals would perform well in both reproduction and survival, whereas "bad breeders die sooner" (i.e., individual quality: Curio 1983). Second, there could be variations in resource availability across environments; if individuals are studied in environments where resource availability varies, individuals in better environments would exhibit higher reproductive and survival rates than individuals in poorer environments. The literature provides some examples where it has been suggested that nonbreeders are lower...

Summary1. Many studies have provided evidence that ®rst-time breeders have a lower survival, a lower probability of success, or of breeding, in the following year. Hypotheses based on reproductive costs have often been proposed to explain this. However, because of the intrinsic relationship between age and experience, the apparent inferiority of ®rst-time breeders at the population level may result from selection, and experience may not in¯uence performance within each individual. In this paper we address the question of phenotypic correlations between ®tness components. This addresses dierences in individual quality, a prerequisite for a selection process to occur. We also test the hypothesis of an in¯uence of experience on these components while taking age and reproductive success into account: two factors likely to play a key role in a selection process. 2. Using data from a long-term study on the kittiwake, we found that ®rst-time breeders have a lower probability of success, a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the next year than experienced breeders. However, neither experienced nor inexperienced breeders have a lower survival or a lower probability of breeding in the following year than birds that skipped a breeding opportunity. This suggests heterogeneity in quality among individuals. 3. Failed birds have a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the following year regardless of experience. This can be interpreted in the light of the selection hypothesis. The inferiority of inexperienced breeders may be linked to a higher proportion of lower-quality individuals in younger age classes. When age and breeding success are controlled for, there is no evidence of an in¯uence of experience on survival or future breeding probability. 4. Using data from individuals whose reproductive life lasted the same number of years, we investigated the in¯uence of experience on reproductive performance within individuals. There is no strong evidence that a process operating within individuals explains the improvement in performance observed at the population level.

Few studies have addressed the effects of food availability as a proximate factor affecting local adult survival in long-lived organisms and their consequences at local population dynamics. We used capturerecapture analysis of resightings of 10 birth cohorts of ringed Audouin's gulls, Larus audouinii, to estimate adult survival and dispersal (both emigration and immigration). For the first time, permanent emigration (the transient effect in capture-recapture analysis) was modelled for the whole population and not only for the newly marked birds. Gulls exploit to a large extent fishes discarded from trawlers, and a trawling moratorium established since 1991 has decreased food supply for the colony. This was used as a natural experiment of food availability to assess its effects on adult survival and emigration. These and other demographic parameters were used in a projection modelling to assess the probabilities of extinction of the colony under two scenarios of lower and higher food availability. Food availability (together with the age of individuals) influenced emigration probabilities, but not adult survival, which was estimated at 0.91 (s.e. = 0.02). When food was in shorter supply during the chick-rearing period, emigration was very high (ca. 65%) for younger breeders, although this rate decreased sharply with age. Probabilities of extinction were very high when food availability was low, and when environmental stochasticity was introduced, and only stochastic immigration from the outside seemed to prevent extinction. The results highlight the importance of dispersal processes in the population dynamics of long-lived organisms.

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g., emphasize management efforts to prevent new colonization or to eradicate the species in places where it has already settled), it is essential to understand invasion mechanisms and dynamics. Quantifying and understanding what influences rates of spatial spread is a key research area for invasion theory. In this paper, we develop a model to account for occupancy dynamics of an invasive species. Our model extends existing models to accommodate several elements of invasive processes; we chose the framework of hierarchical modeling to assess site occupancy status during an invasion. First, we explicitly accounted for spatial structure and how distance among sites and position relative to one another affect the invasion spread. In particular, we accounted for the possibility of directional propagation and provided a way of estimating the direction of this possible spread. Second, we considered the influence of local density on site occupancy. Third, we decided to split the colonization process into two subprocesses, initial colonization and recolonization, which may be ground-breaking because these subprocesses may exhibit different relationships with environmental variations (such as density variation) or colonization history (e.g., initial colonization might facilitate further colonization events). Finally, our model incorporates imperfection in detection, which might be a source of substantial bias in estimating population parameters. We focused on the case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and its invasion of the United States since its introduction in the early 1980s, using data from the North American BBS (Breeding Bird Survey). The Eurasian Collared-Dove is one of the most successful invasive species, at least among terrestrial vertebrates. Our model provided estimation of the spread direction consistent with empirical observations. Site persistence probability exhibits a quadratic response to density. We also succeeded at detecting differences in the relationship between density and initial colonization vs. recolonization probabilities. We provide a map of sites that may be colonized in the future as an example of possible practical application of our work.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a statistical innovation that allows researchers to fit far more complex models to data than is feasible using conventional methods. Despite its widespread use in a variety of scientific fields, MCMC appears to be underutilized in wildlife applications. This may be due to a misconception that MCMC requires the adoption of a subjective Bayesian analysis, or perhaps simply to its lack of familiarity among wildlife researchers. We introduce the basic ideas of MCMC and software BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), stressing that a simple and satisfactory intuition for MCMC does not require extraordinary mathematical sophistication. We illustrate the use of MCMC with an analysis of the association between latent factors governing individual heterogeneity in breeding and survival rates of kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). We conclude with a discussion of the importance of individual heterogeneity for understanding population dynamics and designing management plans.

Summary1. The long-term fitness consequences of conditions during development are receiving growing attention: they are at the interface between ecological and evolutionary processes. We addressed the influence of the length of the rearing period and 'rank' on fitness components in a long-lived seabird species with deferred breeding: the kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ). Rank, which depends on hatching order, was used as a surrogate for dominance status in the brood. Rank could be viewed as a random factor affecting individuals regardless of their possible 'intrinsic quality' at birth. The length of the rearing period was used as a surrogate for parental effort. It reflects the interaction between numerous factors such as environmental conditions, parental quality, reproductive decisions and effort, and also offspring decisions and intrinsic quality at birth. 2. There was evidence of an influence of the length of the rearing period on local survival before recruitment. Individuals with shorter rearing periods had lower local survival during the first winter (e.g. the relationship was positive). They may incur higher mortality. In rank 1 prebreeders, this relationship was negative in older age-classes. Longer rearing periods and better condition at independence may be associated with stronger migrating ability, and prebreeders that have not yet made settlement decisions may emigrate permanently to distant locations. Such a complex pattern may reflect age-related changes in the relative contribution of mortality and permanent emigration to local survival. 3. The length of the rearing period had long-term consequences on reproductive performance. The relationship was positive but the rate of increase decreased slightly at higher values of the covariate. 4. There was an unambiguously negative influence of rank on survival before recruitment and recruitment probability, but not on demographic parameters specific to the reproductive stage. Juniors recruited later than elder siblings. The disadvantage of juniors may be expressed mainly in terms of higher mortality and disappearance from the population before recruitment.Key-words : deferred breeding, demographic parameters specific to the prereproductive and reproductive stages, individual quality, longitudinal data, multistate capturerecapture models.

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field studies, ecological state dynamics operating at any level of this hierarchy can often be unobservable or ‘hidden’. Ecologists must therefore often contend with incomplete or indirect observations that are somehow related to these underlying processes. By formally disentangling state and observation processes based on simple yet powerful mathematical properties that can be used to describe many ecological phenomena, hidden Markov models (HMMs) can facilitate inferences about complex system state dynamics that might otherwise be intractable. However, HMMs have only recently begun to gain traction within the broader ecological community. We provide a gentle introduction to HMMs, establish some common terminology, review the immense scope of HMMs for applied ecological research and provide a tutorial on implementation and interpretation. By illustrating how practitioners can use a simple conceptual template to customise HMMs for their specific systems of interest, revealing methodological links between existing applications, and highlighting some practical considerations and limitations of these approaches, our goal is to help establish HMMs as a fundamental inferential tool for ecologists.