In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work sought to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. We found that, from their invasion of Colombia to the most recent years, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with most of the records. Our ecological niche modelling for the currently suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the Colombian continental surface up to 3000 m (p < 0.001) putting at risk at least 48 million of people that could be infected by the arboviruses that this species transmits. Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, under RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover to nearly 90% of continental extension up to 3100 m (≈55 million of people at risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, it could decrease below 60% of continental extension, but expand upward to 3200 m (< 38 million of people at risk). These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting.
2 13 ABSTRACT 14 In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main 15 vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work set out to 16 estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative 17 Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological 18 niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A.19 albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. It 20 was found that, since its invasion to Colombia, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in 21 peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and 22 Valle del Cauca being the departments with the most registries. The current estimation suggests 23 that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the territory up to 3000 m (p < 0.001). Additionally, by 24 2050 and 2070, below RCP 2.6, its distribution could diminish to nearly 90% including altitudes 25 of 3100 m, while below RCP 8.5 it would be < 60% increasing its distribution up to 3200 m. 26 These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country 27 and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal 28 range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this 29 vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting. 30 31 Keywords: Distribution models, invasive species, maximum entropy, potential vector. 32 INTRODUCTION33 The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae), presents vector 34 competence for at least 26 arboviruses and some filiarial nematode worms (1,2). In continents, 35 like Asia and Oceania, A. albopictus is the main vector for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika (3-6).36 In America, it is not considered as the prime vector for these arboviruses, however, sporadically, 37 it has been found infected naturally with dengue in countries, like the United States (North 38 America), Colombia, and Brazil (South America) (7-9). Additionally, the tiger mosquito could 39 present an ecological niche similarity with Aedes aegypti (10), the primary vector for dengue, 40 chikungunya, and Zika in this continent, and whose presence in Colombia encompasses 90% of 41 the territory up to 2.300 m. Currently, for these three arboviruses, no efficient vaccines exist yet 42 (11-13).43 The tiger mosquito is native to tropical, subtropical, and temperate forests of Asia and the islands 44 of the western Pacific (14). In these zones, favorable conditions for its development for the 45 aquatic immature phases are estimated at water temperature between 26 and 32 °C, while the 46 adults require environmental temperature ranging between 25 and 31 °C and relative humidity > 47 70%. In addition, it has been detected in temperatures >40 °C and below 17 °C its survival is 48 notably affected (15-17). In...
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