One of the serious challenges to Nigeria today is Unemployment. There have been many studies to investigate variables which affect unemployment in macroeconomics. Considering exchange rate volatility in recent years which has affected most of major variables of Nigerian economy, this paper investigated the relationship between Exchange rate and Unemployment in Nigeria using annual data of Thirty-one Years (1986 to 2017). In order to achieve the objective of the paper, Autoregressive Model with distributed Lag was used to find out the relationship between Real Exchange rate and Unemployment in the country. The Variables used are Unemployment rate, Real Exchange rate, Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Export Value index; and Import Value index. It was found that Real Exchange Rate has positive effect on unemployment during the period. With high exchange rate, unemployment rate increases. The paper advises for efforts to increase supply of foreign exchange earnings in the country so as to curtail excess demand for it. This will lead to producing more goods as industries that would be established for such production will absorb more workforces out of the unemployed. Key Words: Unemployment; Exchange rate; Auto- regression;
In this manuscript, attempts were made to assess the impacts on Nigeria of full and instant tariff elimination from agricultural imports. A schedule of annual percentage reductions till full elimination as against an instant total or arbitrary elimination across all imports from the EU, as well asthe expected annual provisions via aids for envisaged trade to install infrastructural capacity aimed at forestalling fiscal imbalance, leading to stabilization for Nigeria, advocated. The study evaluates the likely share of Nigeria’s imports from the European Union (EU), Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS), and the rest of the world (ROW) in major agricultural product sections trade. The World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITs) platform was used to illicit a likely Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) scenario import data through a tariff eliminated query set up. The major impacts estimated include the resultant consumption impact, revenue impact, welfare impact, trade creation and diversion impacts, welfare impact of trade creation with consumption impact, and Welfare impacts of trade diversion with consumption impacts, in addition to their implications for scheduled tariff eliminations. Summary results were presented at product section levels as percentage of the impacts to contribution of agricultural sector in Nigeria’s GDP. Based on the estimated impacts and terms of trade deal, it is recommended that Nigeria should follow a schedule of percentage tariff reduction across product sections relative to the current most favored nations’ rather than arbitrary measures as a major policy of liberalizing trade. An annual percent tariff reduction rates over the 25 years, of 0.38%; 1.35%; 0.62%; 0.72%; and 0.2, for product sections 01-05, respectively, is recommended. In addition, it is also recommended that corresponding tariff losses in revenue due to scheduled reductions in tariff should be provided annually via aid for trade, for improvement in infrastructure, production and exportation that will sustain and improve intra, inter and extra regional trade in a growth and globalization pursuit aided by the EU. Keywords: International Agricultural Product Imports; Aid for Trade; EPAs; Impacts; Percentage Tariff Reduction Schedule.JEL Classification: F; F1; F6
This study examined the relationship between exchange rate and the Nigerian economy from 1986 to 2016. Secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and the World Bank database was used. Econometric tools of analysis were employed to estimate the model. The output from the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test revealed that all variables except inflation rate and interest rate were found to be stationary at first difference. The Johansen Cointegration technique reveals the presence of two and one cointegrating equations respectively indicating the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among Gross. The normalized cointegration equation revealed that exchange rate had positive relationship with economic growth (GDP). The slope of EXR (exchange rate) though insignificant is positive. The coefficient of INTR was observed to be negative and insignificant, while INFR was negative and statistically significant. Deriving from empirical findings, the study thus concludes that exchange rate has a positive long run relationship with economic growth. Based on the foregoing findings, the study has favoured the implementation of the following recommendations: government should encourage export promotion strategies in order to maintain a surplus balance of trade, conducive environment, adequate security, effective fiscal and monetary policies, as well as infrastructural facilities be provided so that foreign investors will be attracted to invest in Nigeria. The apex bank (Central Bank of Nigeria) should design and develop strategies that will stem the tide of rising inflation in the economy as persistent rise in prices has the tendency of adversely affecting consumers' purchasing power. Finally, monetary policy measures to reduce the present high interest rate adopted for borrowers should be initiated as fast as possible. It is only an affordable interest rate (cost of borrowing) that can motivate would-be investors to borrow and invest for the growth of the national economy.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of exchange rate and domestic price on export trade in Nigeria. Firstly, based on the literature review and findings of the study in the area, the paper aligned itself within the premise of the traditionalist view which concludes that non-oil export trade in Nigeria is predicated by currency depreciation via lower export prices. Secondly, the introduction of domestic prices, alongside naira rate of exchange as major determinants of non-oil exports in Nigeria, has the implication of showing that currency devaluation could be used to improve the balance of payment position of the country. We therefore recommend policy measures from the monetary authorities in the country that would stabilize the foreign exchange market and the exchange rate. Caution on the part of the government is also recommended when adopting trade policies to ensure Nigeria does not end up with unfavorable terms of trade and balance of payments with trading partner countries.
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