It is also demonstrated that the lower limit of the barrier at the stratospheric polar-vortex edge, i.e., the "sub-vortex" transition, varies in altitude throughout the winter. In the Antarctic the transition generally occurs at 380 K and is sometimes as low as 350 K. In the Arctic the transition is higher, rarely occun'ing below 400 K and frequently occurring above 450 K.

Abstract. The transport and mixing properties of the isentropic flow in the lower and middle stratosphere are analyzed by using observed winds to advect a tracer on isentropic surfaces in the range 400-850 K. The effective diffusivity diagnostic introduced by Nakamura and collaborators is applied to the tracer field in order to identify barriers to transport and mixing regions, and to follow their seasonal evolution. Large effective diffusivity corresponds to strong mixing, and small effective diffusivity corresponds to weak mixing, i.e., to barriers. The effective diffusivity shows, in the winter stratosphere of each hemisphere, the evolution of the vortex-edge barrier and the midlatitude surf zone, and also the extent of any mixing within the vortex. At low latitudes in the stratosphere there is a region of low effective diffusivity whose latitudinal width varies with height, broadening substantially from 400 K to 550 K. The low values of effective diffusivity in this •'tropical-reservoir" region imply little isentropic transport into or out of it. There is a strong seasonal cycle to the reservoir, which has different forms at 400 K, 450-600 K, and above 650 K, determined by the relative influences of tropospheric synoptic eddies and stratospheric planetary waves. Comparison of effective diffusivity between the Northern Hemisphere winters 1996/1997 and 1997/1998 shows strong differences at low latitudes according to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). When there are QBO easterlies, there is a broad region of very low effective diffusivity at low latitudes. When there are QBO westerlies, there are very low values of effective diffusivity at low latitudes within the westerlies themselves but larger values at their edges.

Near-surface “effective diffusivities” associated with geostrophic eddies in the Southern Ocean are estimated by numerically monitoring the lengthening of idealized tracer contours as they are strained by surface geostrophic flow observed by satellite altimetry. The resulting surface diffusivities show considerable spatial variability and are large (2000 m2 s−1) on the equatorward flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and are small (500 m2 s−1) at the jet axis. Regions of high and low effective diffusivity are shown to be collocated with regions of, respectively, weak and strong isentropic potential vorticity gradients. The maps of diffusivity are used, along with climatological estimates of surface wind stress and air–sea buoyancy flux, to estimate surface meridional residual flows and the relative importance of Eulerian and eddy-induced circulation in the streamwise-averaged dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 • C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climatePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 • C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 • C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 • C scenario.

[1] The ability of the models contributing to the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to represent the Southern Ocean hydrological properties and its overturning is investigated in a water mass framework. Models have a consistent warm and light bias spread over the entire water column. The greatest bias occurs in the ventilated layers, which are volumetrically dominated by mode and intermediate layers.The ventilated layers have been observed to have a strong fingerprint of climate change and to impact climate by sequestrating a significant amount of heat and carbon dioxide. The mode water layer is poorly represented in the models and both mode and intermediate water have a significant fresh bias. Under increased radiative forcing, models simulate a warming and lightening of the entire water column, which is again greatest in the ventilated layers, highlighting the importance of these layers for propagating the climate signal into the deep ocean. While the intensity of the water mass overturning is relatively consistent between models, when compared to observation-based reconstructions, they exhibit a slightly larger rate of overturning at shallow to intermediate depths, and a slower rate of overturning deeper in the water column. Under increased radiative forcing, atmospheric fluxes increase the rate of simulated upper cell overturning, but this increase is counterbalanced by diapycnal fluxes, including mixed-layer horizontal mixing, and mostly vanishes.