Understanding the influence of environmental variability on population dynamics is a fundamental goal of ecology. Theory suggests that, for populations in variable environments, temporal correlations between demographic vital rates (e.g., growth, survival, reproduction) can increase (if positive) or decrease (if negative) the variability of year-to-year population growth. Because this variability generally decreases long-term population viability, vital rate correlations may importantly affect population dynamics in stochastic environments. Despite long-standing theoretical interest, it is unclear whether vital rate correlations are common in nature, whether their directions are predominantly negative or positive, and whether they are of sufficient magnitude to warrant broad consideration in studies of stochastic population dynamics. We used long-term demographic data for three perennial plant species, hierarchical Bayesian parameterization of population projection models, and stochastic simulations to address the following questions: (1) What are the sign, magnitude, and uncertainty of temporal correlations between vital rates? (2) How do specific pairwise correlations affect the year-toyear variability of population growth? (3) Does the net effect of all vital rate correlations increase or decrease year-to-year variability? (4) What is the net effect of vital rate correlations on the long-term stochastic population growth rate (λ s )? We found only four moderate to strong correlations, both positive and negative in sign, across all species and vital rate pairs; otherwise, correlations were generally weak in magnitude and variable in sign. The net effect of vital rate correlations ranged from a slight decrease to an increase in the year-to-year variability of population growth, with average changes in variance ranging from −1% to +22%. However, vital rate correlations caused virtually no change in the estimates of λ s (mean effects ranging from −0.01% to +0.17%). Therefore, the proportional changes in the variance of population growth caused by demographic correlations were too small on an absolute scale to importantly affect population growth and viability. We conclude that, in our three focal populations and perhaps more generally, vital rate correlations have little effect on stochastic population dynamics. This may be good news for population ecologists, because estimating vital rate correlations and incorporating them into population models can be data intensive and technically challenging.
Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate‐plus‐competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range‐limiting processes, including landscape‐scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate‐only perspective.
Spate irrigation is a system of harvesting and managing flood water. In spate irrigation, flood water is emitted from wadis (ephemeral streams) and diverted to fields using earthen or concrete structures. By nature, flood water is unpredictable in occurrence, timing and volume, which puts special challenges to the farmers who use, co-share and co-manage the resource. Primarily based on the research conducted in spate irrigation systems in Eritrea, Yemen and Pakistan, this chapter discusses the interlinkage between local flood water management and water rights and rules, and the enforcement mechanisms in place. It assesses how formal national/provincial land and water laws affect local flood water management and argues that what matters most are the local rules for cooperation and sharing the resource and, hence, that formal water and land rights for spate irrigation should recognize local water rights and management.
Abstract. Priority effects are hypothesized to play an important role in community assembly and may promote suppression of native by exotic species. Work in a range of grassland systems has proved valuable for testing these effects, demonstrating that earlier germination by some exotic annual grasses contributes to their competitive dominance over natives. Yet few studies have measured native forb germination phenology under field conditions, and the demographic consequences of emergence timing for competitive interactions and native fitness are not well understood. We focused on three native annual species in a southern California grassland dominated by exotic Bromus spp. over three years, measuring (1) seedling emergence rates, for both early (October) and later (November and December) germinators; (2) effects of exotic grasses on native survival and reproduction, through a grass removal experiment; and (3) interactions between emergence timing and grass competitive effects on native mortality, survival, and flowering. We quantified tradeoffs of emergence timing, by estimating mortality experienced by early germinants until the late cohort emerged (early survival), and then for both cohorts from the time of late emergence to flowering (spring survival). The two most common focal natives, Amsinckia intermedia and Phacelia distans, varied substantially in germination phenology but primarily emerged early. The less abundant Clarkia purpurea germinated late. Late emergence reduced spring survival in control plots but not those where exotic grasses were reduced experimentally, supporting the importance of priority effects and benefits of early germination in competition with grasses. However, early emergence entailed a high cost of initial mortality risk in some years. We found no effect of emergence timing on size at flowering. Estimates of net survivorship to flowering suggest that late emergence consistently was associated with the highest survival when exotic grasses were reduced experimentally. Early emergence was more favored in control than in exotic grass reduction plots, but the survival tradeoffs differed substantially between years. These results suggest that priority effects contribute to suppression of native forbs, but may not consistently promote higher fitness for earlier germinators. Instead, exotic invasion may increase yearly variation in the fitness consequences of native germination phenology, with potential implications for bet hedging strategies.
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