How does the amount of land that youth expect to inherit affect their migration and employment decisions? We explore this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using a 2014 cross‐sectional dataset indicating whether or not youth household members from a previous 2010 survey had migrated by 2014, and in which sector they worked in 2014. We estimate a household fixed effects model and exploit exogenous variation in the timing of land redistributions to overcome endogenous household decisions about how much land to bequeath to descendants. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long‐distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas. Inheriting more land also leads to a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the non‐agricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily‐driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find suggestive evidence that several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance is a much stronger predictor of rural‐to‐urban permanent migration and non‐agricultural‐sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets, in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers), and in areas with lower soil quality. Overall, these results affirm the importance of push factors in dictating occupation and migration decisions in Ethiopia.

Journal articleIFPRI3; ISI; CRP2DSGD; EPTD; PIMPRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) Working Papers contain preliminary material and research results from IFPRI and/or its partners in Ethiopia. The papers are not subject to a formal peer review. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their home institutions or supporting organizations.

Ethiopia’s economy remains at a very early stage in its structural transformation. A puzzle presents itself as to how such growth can be maintained given its relatively low urbanization rate and its reliance on the agricultural sector as the primary form of employment. This chapter examines labour diversification in Ethiopia, focusing on youth, and explores current conditions that youth face in both the agricultural and nonfarm labour markets. Using data from the Ethiopia Socioeconomy Survey (ESS) and the National Labour Force Survey (NFLS), we explore current trends in labour diversification, along with youth nonfarm engagement in rural and small towns. We find that youth (ages 25 to 34 years) have a greater probability of working in nonfarm enterprises compared to mature individuals (age 35–64). However, wage labour opportunities remain scant in rural Ethiopia. The majority of individuals working in nonfarm employment are engaged in small-scale trade activities.

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The trade-off between short-term welfare and long-term agricultural development in the highlands of Ethiopia represents a challenge to successful economic development in a predominantly agriculture-based economy. We employ nearest neighbor and kernel-based matching techniques to measure the impact of sustainable land and watershed management (SLWM) on the value of production at the plot level. Analysis suggests that plots that received SLWM investments (terraces, bunds, check dams) within the first study period (1992–2002) had a 24 per cent higher value of production in 2010. In addition, continuous treatment effects analysis provides a robustness check and suggests that plots with existing SLWM infrastructure have a positive and increasing value of production seven years after construction. Although value of production increases over time, net benefits may not outweigh costs, and mechanisms to incentivize maintenance may be needed.

Journal articleIFPRI3; ISIDSGDP