No abstract

Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly prominent threat to biodiversity. However, traditional methods in conservation generally have limited efficacy in the face of disease threats. Ironically, although unintentional human movement of species has facilitated the spread of pathogens, intentional conservation translocations are a promising approach to combatting disease threats under certain circumstances. Here, we summarize two decades of published literature on translocations of Australian frogs threatened by chytridiomycosis-a fungal disease that has caused amphibian declines and extinctions globally. We identify key motivations, considerations, and factors associated with outcomes, including the role of chytridiomycosis in failures. In an effort to improve success, we then propose a conceptual framework for determining when conservation translocations may be both feasible and beneficial, with a focus on understanding mechanisms favoring host persistence.Lastly, we build on our findings from the review and the conceptual framework to develop a set of recommendations to guide practitioners aiming to translocate amphibians as a conservation strategy in the face of chytridiomycosis. Although diseases pose a unique set of challenges for managing declining species in the wild, we argue that progress is likely with careful and well-informed adaptive management experiments to refine reintroduction and translocation efforts.

Defining species habitat requirements is essential for effective conservation management through revealing agents of population decline and identifying critical habitat for conservation actions, such as translocations. Here we studied the habitat-associations of two threatened terrestrial-breeding frog species from southwestern Australia, Geocrinia alba and Geocrinia vitellina, to investigate if fine-scale habitat variables explain why populations occur in discrete patches, why G. alba is declining, and why translocation attempts have had mixed outcomes. We compared habitat variables at sites where the species are present, to variables at immediately adjacent sites where frogs are absent, and at sites where G. alba is locally extinct. Dry season soil moisture was the most important predictor of frog abundance for both species, and explained why G. alba had become extinct from some areas. Sites where G. alba were present were also positively associated with moss cover, and negatively with bare ground and soil conductivity. Modelling frog abundance based exclusively on dry season soil moisture predicted recent translocation successes with high accuracy. Hence, considering dry season soil moisture when selecting future translocation sites should increase the probability of population establishment. We propose that a regional drying trend is the most likely cause for G. alba declines and that both species are at risk of further habitat and range contraction due to further projected regional declines in rainfall and groundwater levels. More broadly, our study highlights that conservation areas in drying climates may not provide adequate protection and may require interventions to preserve critical habitat.

More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.